Toronto Savage
vs
Austin Jiveturkeys
(90-72) (98-64)
It's time for World Series #25, and this season there is a guaranteed first-time champion between two of KML's original teams (and their original owners)! It's a battle between the American League champs in the Toronto Savage against the National League winners in the Austin Jiveturkeys. For Toronto, they are hoping that the 3rd time is the charm as this is their 3rd trip to the World Series having lost to Baltimore in 4 games in Season 18 and 6 games in Season 21. They won't have to face the Crab Cakes this time around because Austin has taken the liberty of knocking Baltimore out in the NLCS, ending their 5-year run of terror. This is the Jiveturkeys' first trip to the World Series after just their 3rd playoff appearance (NOTE - Austin won 2 World Series pre-merger). Austin was lying dormant for awhile, but they seem to be a contender for the near future having won back to back division titles. Let's break down the matchup.
I am going to continue to use my model to talk about some of the key players. This model uses a scale of 20 to 80 where 50 would be considered league average (regardless of position). A player with a rating of 60 would be considered a "plus" player, and above 70 would be a "superstar". The highest rated hitter in this series is a familiar name in Henderson Long who after winning 6 titles in Baltimore, is chasing a ring in Toronto. He could win the World Series for the 6th year in a row, but he might have to wait a game to play as he suffered a forearm cramp in game 7 of the ALCS. The free agent signing was #1 in OPS for Toronto at 0.913 in the regular season. That's a theme with all of Toronto's hitters on this list. All of them have signed in recent years to help bolster Toronto's offense: Frankie Capps (0.291/0.348/0.488) was signed 3 seasons ago, Dexter Blake (0.271/0.349/0.496) was signed 2 seasons ago, Vin Mercado (0.296/0.372/0.512) was signed last season, and Juan Romero (0.314/0.377/0.499) joined Long in Toronto this season. They helped lead Toronto to the world's 3rd best offense by runs scored. They've kept it going in the playoffs with 71 runs in the playoffs, a little over 5 per game.
Austin's offense is no slouch either as they were 7th in runs scored in the regular season (#1 in the NL) and have averaged over 6 runs per game in the playoffs. They are led by their 2 MVP candidates, Miguel DeRojas (42 HR, 123 RBIs, 0.898 OPS) and Adeiny Aguilar (24 HRs, 73 RBIs, 0.372 OBP). Austin does their damage with small ball more than the long ball. They had the 2nd best OBP in the majors but were 14th in HRs. Arthur Loy was their best at getting on base as he finished 3rd in the majors in OBP at 0.411. He is one of their 25 and under club that have led to Austin's resurgence along with Douglas Stevenson, Mike Sheffield, and the previously mentioned Adeiny Aguilar. They can steal a base or two as well but they are more middle of the pack in that category. They will have to rely on some timely HRs to capitalize on their high OBP.
| Rank | Player | Team | Offensive Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henderson Long | Toronto | 65.0 |
| 2 | Vin Mercado | Toronto | 64.2 |
| 3 | Frankie Capps | Toronto | 62.7 |
| 4 | Adeiny Aguilar | Austin | 62.7 |
| 5 | Dexter Blake | Toronto | 61.2 |
| 6 | Juan Romero | Toronto | 60.4 |
| 7 | Douglas Stevenson | Austin | 60.4 |
| 8 | Moises DeRojas | Austin | 60.0 |
| 9 | Pedro Flores | Austin | 57.3 |
| 10 | Arthur Loy | Austin | 56.9 |
In terms of pitching, if we go off regular season numbers, Austin would appear to have a huge edge with a team ERA of 3.47 (4th best overall) compared to Toronto's 4.81 ERA (28th in the league). Toronto's starting rotation in particular struggled as Russ Workman had the best ERA at 4.50, with Brutus Munro a little bit worse at 4.68. Their staff has done a complete 180 in the playoffs with a team ERA of 3.60. Ray Carter is 3-1 with a 3.21 ERA, Pascual Gonzales is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA (4 starts) and Munro is 4-1 with a 3.74 ERA. Their top 3 relievers have been lights out with 26 IP and a sub-2.00 ERA.
Austin has done a 180 in the wrong direction in the playoffs as their ERA has ballooned to 5.81. Their best pitcher in the regular season isn't listed in the top 10 pitchers below due in part to rating decline but Eric Weatherford was terrific with a record of 18-3 and a 2.68 ERA. He has struggled mightily in his 2 starts so far these playoffs going 0-1 with an 8.18 ERA. In fact all of their starting pitchers have ERAs over 5 in the playoffs. They will need to be a lot better in the World Series to keep Toronto in check.
| Rank | Player | Team | Pitching Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Marrero | Austin | 65.7 |
| 2 | Brutus Munro | Toronto | 64.1 |
| 3 | Lariel Cervantes | Toronto | 60.8 |
| 4 | Benito Gonzalez | Austin | 60.4 |
| 5 | Yordano Palmeiro | Austin | 59.6 |
| 6 | Pascual Gonzales | Toronto | 58.6 |
| 7 | Tony Reyes | Austin | 58.3 |
| 8 | Henry Zambrano | Austin | 56.2 |
| 9 | Reymond Vega | Toronto | 56.1 |
| 10 | Ray Carter | Toronto | 56.0 |
I don't have a defensive model ready yet, but Austin had 2 Gold Glove winners to Toronto's 0 this season. This will be a great matchup of two teams hungry for their first tite Good luck to both teams in World Series 25!
