World Series 25 Preview

                        Toronto Savagevs     Austin Jiveturkeys

                           (90-72)                                                                                              (98-64)

It's time for World Series #25, and this season there is a guaranteed first-time champion between two of KML's original teams (and their original owners)!  It's a battle between the American League champs in the Toronto Savage against the National League winners in the Austin Jiveturkeys.  For Toronto, they are hoping that the 3rd time is the charm as this is their 3rd trip to the World Series having lost to Baltimore in 4 games in Season 18 and 6 games in Season 21.  They won't have to face the Crab Cakes this time around because Austin has taken the liberty of knocking Baltimore out in the NLCS, ending their 5-year run of terror.  This is the Jiveturkeys' first trip to the World Series after just their 3rd playoff appearance (NOTE - Austin won 2 World Series pre-merger).  Austin was lying dormant for awhile, but they seem to be a contender for the near future having won back to back division titles.  Let's break down the matchup.

I am going to continue to use my model to talk about some of the key players.  This model uses a scale of 20 to 80 where 50 would be considered league average (regardless of position).  A player with a rating of 60 would be considered a "plus" player, and above 70 would be a "superstar".  The highest rated hitter in this series is a familiar name in Henderson Long who after winning 6 titles in Baltimore, is chasing a ring in Toronto.  He could win the World Series for the 6th year in a row, but he might have to wait a game to play as he suffered a forearm cramp in game 7 of the ALCS.  The free agent signing was #1 in OPS for Toronto at 0.913 in the regular season.  That's a theme with all of Toronto's hitters on this list.  All of them have signed in recent years to help bolster Toronto's offense: Frankie Capps (0.291/0.348/0.488) was signed 3 seasons ago, Dexter Blake (0.271/0.349/0.496) was signed 2 seasons ago, Vin Mercado (0.296/0.372/0.512) was signed last season, and Juan Romero (0.314/0.377/0.499) joined Long in Toronto this season.  They helped lead Toronto to the world's 3rd best offense by runs scored. They've kept it going in the playoffs with 71 runs in the playoffs, a little over 5 per game. 

Austin's offense is no slouch either as they were 7th in runs scored in the regular season (#1 in the NL) and have averaged over 6 runs per game in the playoffs.  They are led by their 2 MVP candidates, Miguel DeRojas (42 HR, 123 RBIs, 0.898 OPS) and Adeiny Aguilar (24 HRs, 73 RBIs, 0.372 OBP). Austin does their damage with small ball more than the long ball. They had the 2nd best OBP in the majors but were 14th in HRs.  Arthur Loy was their best at getting on base as he finished 3rd in the majors in OBP at 0.411. He is one of their 25 and under club that have led to Austin's resurgence along with Douglas Stevenson, Mike Sheffield, and the previously mentioned Adeiny Aguilar.  They can steal a base or two as well but they are more middle of the pack in that category. They will have to rely on some timely HRs to capitalize on their high OBP.

Rank	Player	Team	Offensive Rating
1	Henderson Long	Toronto	65.0
2	Vin Mercado	Toronto	64.2
3	Frankie Capps	Toronto	62.7
4	Adeiny Aguilar	Austin	62.7
5	Dexter Blake	Toronto	61.2
6	Juan Romero	Toronto	60.4
7	Douglas Stevenson	Austin	60.4
8	Moises DeRojas	Austin	60.0
9	Pedro Flores	Austin	57.3
10	Arthur Loy	Austin	56.9

In terms of pitching, if we go off regular season numbers, Austin would appear to have a huge edge with a team ERA of 3.47 (4th best overall) compared to Toronto's 4.81 ERA (28th in the league).  Toronto's starting rotation in particular struggled as Russ Workman had the best ERA at 4.50, with Brutus Munro a little bit worse at 4.68. Their staff has done a complete 180 in the playoffs with a team ERA of 3.60. Ray Carter is 3-1 with a 3.21 ERA, Pascual Gonzales is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA (4 starts) and Munro is 4-1 with a 3.74 ERA. Their top 3 relievers have been lights out with 26 IP and a sub-2.00 ERA. 

Austin has done a 180 in the wrong direction in the playoffs as their ERA has ballooned to 5.81. Their best pitcher in the regular season isn't listed in the top 10 pitchers below due in part to rating decline but Eric Weatherford was terrific with a record of 18-3 and a 2.68 ERA. He has struggled mightily in his 2 starts so far these playoffs going 0-1 with an 8.18 ERA. In fact all of their starting pitchers have ERAs over 5 in the playoffs.  They will need to be a lot better in the World Series to keep Toronto in check. 

Rank	Player	Team	Pitching Rating
1	Carlos Marrero	Austin	65.7
2	Brutus Munro	Toronto	64.1
3	Lariel Cervantes	Toronto	60.8
4	Benito Gonzalez	Austin	60.4
5	Yordano Palmeiro	Austin	59.6
6	Pascual Gonzales	Toronto	58.6
7	Tony Reyes	Austin	58.3
8	Henry Zambrano	Austin	56.2
9	Reymond Vega	Toronto	56.1
10	Ray Carter	Toronto	56.0

I don't have a defensive model ready yet, but Austin had 2 Gold Glove winners to Toronto's 0 this season.  This will be a great matchup of two teams hungry for their first tite  Good luck to both teams in World Series 25!

Season 25 Midseason Recap

Season 25 Midseason Recap

We are at the All Star Break in the 25th season of Kenesaw Mountain Landis, with a lot of teams still in the playoff mix. Some of the usual faces are on top but there are also some upstart teams as well. Let's recap the first half of the season!

American League
Current Playoff Picture:
1. Philadelphia (69-22)
2. Toronto (51-40)*
3. El Paso (47-44)
4. Kansas City (46-45)**
WC1. Augusta (60-31)
WC2. Wichita (51-40)
*currently holds tiebreaker over Wichita
**currently holds tiebreaker over Colorado Springs

In the hunt:
Colorado Springs (46-45)
Sioux Falls (46-45)
Cincinnati (45-46)
Little Rock (44-47)
Texas (43-48)

In the American League, Philadelphia is running away with the best record, but the other three divisions have tight races at the top.  

The AL North finished in a tie last year and the same two franchises are tied through 91 games. This time however, the winner of the division is likely playing for the #2 seed as opposed to just making the playoffs. New Wichita owner pathon12 has done a great job picking up where tollison left off guiding the Diamond Dawgs to a tie with long-time Toronto owner shiish, who always seems to have a contender. Both teams are built around their offenses (Toronto 4th in runs scored to 9th for Wichita) but Wichita's pitching staff (15th in ERA) has been better than Toronto's (25th). The division winner could very well be who can improve their pitching in the 2nd half. Sioux Falls continues to improve as efeighny looks to transition them into a contender and shesaid has done a good job rebuilding in his first year in Burlington.

The AL East is already a forgone conclusion with jp_chips again having a great team in Philly. They have the world's #1 offense but also the 5th best ERA at the break. Upstart Augusta (slicknick777) is having a renaissance this year with the AL's second best record built off the world's #2 ERA. Meanwhile Cincinnati (foulballz) has a good run differential but it hasn't translated to their actual record. Buffalo (HWPixHend) will need to do some work the second half of the year to hit the MWR.

In the AL South, justinuv's El Paso is looking for their 6th division title in the past 7 seasons with Little Rock (keithjs) just 3 games back. Their turnaround from one of the worst teams in the world just two seasons ago has been exciting to see and it would be quite a story if they could grab the division crown so quickly. Texas (drewster0) is still in the hunt and has the highest expected winning % in the South but is 4 games back at the break while bruceleefan continues the rebuild in Charleston.

Finally, the AL West is a 2-team tie right now where the loser likely won't make the playoffs. Kansas City (stone7365) is looking for their 2nd straight division title while rklongball is looking to win his first division title with Colorado Springs. It looks like Cheyenne's 24-year playoff streak may be coming to an end unless drwildcat can push the right buttons in the 2nd half. Iowa City (bmsetterstro) might be looking towards season 26.

Biggest Surprise - Augusta Admirals (60-31)
I promise I didn't write this blog post just to talk about my team lol. Augusta lost solid pitcher Jeff Vining to free agency, so they felt compelled to make a trade for BJ Valaika in the offseason. He has surpassed expectations by a mile with a 10-2 record and 2.28 ERA after consistently putting up 4+ ERAs in Houston. Steve Giovanola (11-3, 2.90 ERA) is having a career best year at age 34 while rookie sensation Ordomar Gutierrez (5-3, 2.18 ERA) has been electric for the Admirals. The offense has actually pulled its weight going from 26th in runs scored last year to 10th so far this season. It feels like a regression to the mean is coming for Augusta but they still have a great chance to make the playoffs.

Biggest Disappointment - Cincinnati Butchers (45-46)
In Season 24, Cincinnati was 10th in team ERA and 2nd in runs scored in their homer friendly ballpark. They led the league in HRs each of the last four seasons and they are leading again this season. One problem though is they are now 10th in runs scored because they aren't getting on base as well as last year (0.344 OBP is now 0.320). In particular, Placido Ozuna has a 0.316 OBP this year compared to a career OBP of 0.349 and Luigi Perez has a 0.296 OBP vs a career mark of 0.332.  The bigger problem though is their pitching staff. Cincinnati’s team ERA has increased from 3.76 (10th) to 4.23 (17th) due to some individual player regression and losing players to free agency. Alex Lee had a great year last year but has returned to normal this year, Ricardo Guapo is having his worst season in 5 years, and Manuel Cayones is in Texas now. The offense is still good enough to make the playoffs, but can Cincy’s pitching staff turn it around or will the Butchers have to wait until next season to reload?

MVP - Carl Vining, Philadelphia Union
The rookie of the year last year has taken his game up a notch in year 2 with a slash line of 0.309/0.388/0.637 to go with his 32 HRs, 85 RBIs and 20 SBs. He also has 11 plus plays in LF and only 1 error. His teammate Beau Guyer is also having a great year so it could be a two-man race.

Cy Young - BJ Valaika, Augusta Admirals
The ace of Augusta's pitching staff, Valaika has the best ERA in the AL of qualified pitchers (2.28), is 3rd in WHIP (1.07) and has a fantastic 10-2 record.

National League
Current Playoff Picture:
1. Baltimore (61-30)
2. Austin (56-35)
3. Arizona (55-36)
4. Montreal (51-40)
WC1. New Orleans (54-37)
WC2. Fresno (51-40)

In the hunt:
Jackson (50-41)
Salt Lake City (46-45)

Salem (44-47)

In the National League, things are much tighter at the top but there are fewer teams realistically still alive for the playoffs compared to the AL.

In the NL North, omegasupreme's Montreal Marauders have a 5 game lead on sylemark's Salt Lake City Fudds despite both teams having the same expected winning %. Montreal has been fairly balanced as they are tied for 12th in runs scored and 10th in ERA. The Fudds have been more pitching focused as they have the 4th best ERA but the 29th ranked offense.  Salt Lake City's offense will need to vastly improve for them to win the division.  Meanwhile, Tacoma (quelch) and Chicago (russilini) can start preparing for next season.

In the East, Baltimore (aoscott2) again leads the way thanks to their world best 2.82 ERA. Their offense is lagging behind however at 22nd in the majors. Their division rivals haven't put up much of a fight as London (hofbunter), Trenton (Dufferman), and New York (eazye0007) are all over 20 games back. We will see if any of them are sellers at the deadline. 

The NL South sees a tight race between Austin (ericschmidt) looking for their 2nd straight division title and New Orleans (peoria) who had won the past 12 division titles. Both teams have great offenses (New Orleans 3rd in runs scored and Austin 5th) but Austin's pitching staff (3rd in ERA) has set themselves apart from New Orleans' 11th ranked staff. Jackson (Schlemiel) consistently has good records but has had to deal with New Orleans and now Austin on top. Still they have made the playoffs 4 of the last 5 seasons and they have a fight on their hands the second half of this year with their division rivals and Fresno to grab one of those playoff spots. Louisville (Schmidt22) is at the bottom of the division but have still been competitive despite starting the rebuild process. They'll be a team to watch in a few seasons.

In the West, Arizona (loosecc) is having a fantastic season and is not only looking to end their long playoff drought but to get a playoff bye in the process. They are 6th in team ERA, but their offense (#21) needs to pick it up in the second half of the season. Fresno (kenfox) has won the last 4 division titles and trails Arizona by 4 games going to the 2nd half. Right now it feels like they could end up anywhere between #2 and #7 when the season ends. Salem (finsrcool) is still in the hunt for a playoff spot but needs to make a move soon and Las Vegas is a rebuild in process, but new owner casperthegm has done a good job keeping them competitive where previous owners struggled to do so. 

Biggest Surprise - Arizona Artists (55-36)
Last season Arizona made a few moves that sparked a 25-win improvement from Season 23. It's those same guys that have been the spark for this year's division leading Artists. Marquis Affeldt (0.302/0.420/0.500) has been Arizona's best hitter thus far. Tyreace Jay (5-2, 2.53 ERA) and Kevin Chung (6-5, 3.97 ERA) have been workhorses out of the bullpen. All 3 came over in a big trade with Baltimore last year. Sadie Turner (8-2, 3.38 ERA) has been their best starter this season and Einer Velazquez is 30 for 32 in saves with a 1.72 ERA.

Biggest Disappointment - Chicago White Sox (34-57)
This has to be one of the most unlucky teams I have ever seen. Chicago's run differential would indicate they should be a 43-win team at the All Star Break but instead they sit at 23 games under 0.500. They have struggled mightily in 1-run games with a record of 10-25. Chicago has seen some players crater this year. Irving Quentin had 48 HRs and an 0.895 OPS last season. He has just 13 HRs at the break and a 0.713 OPS. Harry Ordaz has gone from a 0.843 OPS to 0.647 this season.  They also lost Rich Strickland and his 2.09 ERA in a trade (Miguel Alicea has been a nice FA pickup to offset this but Juan Ordonez has struggled). This team should have more wins and they still have some talented players on their roster, but now they have to decide whether to rebuild or reload. 

MVP - Phillip Post, Jackson WhoRThzGuys?

This is a really tough call. There isn't a hitter in the NL having some astronomical offensive season right now. So I'm going with someone having arguably the best all around season thus far. Post is tied for the most + plays at any position in the NL with 15 and he's doing it in a very tough position in CF. His slash line of 0.286/0.355/0.538 is fantastic with an OPS in the top 10. He has 21 HRs and 18 SBs so he's been great at the plate and on the basepaths. If he keeps this up the 2nd half of the year, he will have my vote for MVP.

Cy Young - Cozy Kennedy, Baltimore Crab Cakes
It's a tough call between Baltimore aces Cozy Kennedy and Mac Rollins who both have sub-2.00 ERAs, but I'm going with Kennedy who has an insane 0.78 WHIP to go with his 11-3 record and 1.94 ERA.

HOF Candidates for Season 25

In Season 24, three KML legends took their places in the Hall of Fame.  A season later, there's some new faces that are going to make the votes even more challenging.  Let's break down some of the top candidates for Season 25.  For this post, I am only going to post on some of the new candidates and refer you back to my blog posts from the last couple of seasons for candidates I have previously written about.

Should Be A Lock

Kirk Michaels - In his first year of eligibility, Kirk Michaels should be a no-brainer Hall of Famer.  His 2,960 hits rank 3rd all time, his 620 HRs rank 4th all time, and his 1,900 RBIs rank 2nd all time.  He was no slouch on the basepaths either as he stole 257 bases in his career.  Michaels is a 7x All Star, 9x Silver Slugger at 2B, a former Rookie of the Year and perhaps most impressively, a 6x MVP.  This is as easy as it gets for a HOF decision.

Jose Terrero - see the Season 23 blog post for more on the 3x Cy Young winner.  His vote count increased from 8 to 13 last season, so he has gotten closer, but hasn't gotten enough support.  This is surprising to me, as I think he should be in the HOF easily with his 232 wins, 2,854 strikeouts and career ERA of 3.17

Should Makes It, In My Opinion

Chadd Kendrick - I have written about Kendrick before, but I am going to go to bat for him here.  I think despite not having as many innings or strikeouts as some other pitchers, he deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.  He was a 10x All Star and a 4x Fireman of the Year winner (not an easy award to win).  He has the lowest ERA in KML history at 2.19, the 4th lowest WHIP at 1.04, and 5th lowest batting average against at 0.205.  I think he has done enough and had enough accolades to deserve to be in the Hall of Fame.

Could Go Either Way

Kirk Mercedes - Not to be confused with the other Kirk M, Mr. Mercedes was a defensive specialist who also had a good bat.  His 109 plus plays in CF are the 5th most all time.  That's a big reason why he was a 5x Gold Glove winner in CF and also why he was a 9x All Star.  At the plate, Mercedes was good at getting on base, finishing his career with a 0.367 OBP (5th highest among the current HOF candidates), and 2,223 hits.  He only has 281 HRs, but he stole 338 bases, something that won't show up in his OPS.  He's in a tough spot, because he was one of the top 2 defensive CF in his prime, but I don't know if he has enough offense to get him in the HOF.

Ezequiel Tatis - A 6x All Star and a Cy Young winner in Season 16, Ezequiel Tatis was a consistently solid pitcher despite playing mostly in hitter friendly Yankee Stadium.  He finished his career with 208 wins, 2,540 strikeouts, and a career ERA of 3.14.  I think the most impressive part of Tatis' career is that he never had a season with an ERA above 4.  His lack of all star appearances probably hurts him a little bit, but Tatis is certainly worthy of consideration for the HOF.

Dave Regan - An excellent pitcher in his prime, Dave Regan was a solid pitcher for the majority of his career.  He was a 2x Cy Young Award winner, an 8x All Star, and even won one Silver Slugger award.  He wasn't known for being a prolific strikeout pitcher, but still managed to punch out 2,000 hitters for his career.  He finished his career with a 3.21 ERA, but won fewer than 200 games in his career (195).  The fact that he made 8 all star teams without winning a lot more games is somewhat impressive.  If he had more wins or strikeouts, he might be a lock, but he's firmly in the could go either way category.

See Season 23 blog post for some additional names:

• Joakim Fernandez
• Trey Munro
• Charles Payton
• Sean Turner
• Livan Guerrero
• Socrates Russell
• Jimmie Pena

Good Stats But Lacking Accolades

Cesar Quinones - If not for playing 5 seasons in Seattle, Cesar Quinones might have been a lock to make the HOF.  His career started in Mexico City where he played mostly out of position at SS before he was traded to Seattle.  In his first 8 seasons in the league he only had one silver slugger (SS) and one All Star appearance to his name.  After joining Augusta, he was a 4x All Star and 4x Gold Glove winner at 2B in his 5 seasons there.  His offensive numbers also rebounded from his Seattle days.  Quinones finished his career with a solid 500 HRs, 2,253 hits and career OPS of 0.843.  It's hard to say if he would have been a Hall of Famer if he played his whole career in Augusta, but I'm not sure he has enough right now.

Boone Saunders - Nominated for the HOF for the first time since Season 22, Boone Saunders is another one of these solid closers who had over 500 saves for his career (564, 5th all time).  He was a 4x All Star and finished with a career ERA of 3.17.  He was a solid pitcher but his resume falls short compared to other closers Chadd Kendrick and Del Matsumoto.

• Steve Bailey - See Season 24 blog post
• Peter Donald - See Season 23 blog post
• Del Matsumoto - See Season 23 blog post

Solid Career, Just Not Quite HOF Worthy

Juan Valbuena - A fantastic middle reliever, Juan Valbuena was a guy that teams would call on to get games to their closer in the 9th inning.  He finished with a solid career ERA of 3.09 in just over 2,000 innings pitched and was a 6x All Star.  He just doesn't really have much in longevity stats, finishing with fewer than 1,500 strikeouts and only 114 wins.  If holds were a stat that was tracked, maybe that could have helped his case.  Still a great career, but not enough for the HOF in my opinion.

Victor Escalona - See Season 24 blog post

My votes:

1. Kirk Michaels - 6x MVP and one of the best hitters in league history

2. Jose Terrero - Elite SP with 3x Cy Young Awards and career 3.17 ERA

3. Chadd Kendrick - Currently KML's best ERA (2.19)

4. Trey Munro - Cy Young winner with 3K strikeouts

5. Livan Guerrero - Most saves in KML history (691), 10x All Star and 6x Fireman

Season 24 Team Ratings vs Results

I was curious to see how my team power ratings matched up with actual results.  I am comparing runs scored for the offense and runs against for the pitching with my preseason rankings by league.  As a reminder, my predictions were just based on average hitter and average pitcher without factoring in how many plate appearances or innings pitched each player would get.  My model also assumes a neutral ballpark, so naturally teams may differ from expected just based on their ballpark.  Thus, I wouldn't expect things to be perfect, but it's still fun to see how things played out in Season 24.

Let's start with the American League Offense.  My model had the top 5 pegged pretty well with 4 of the top 5 finishing in the top 5.  The exception was Iowa City who finished 6th, who does play in a pitcher's ballpark so that could be the reason.  My model also had the bottom 2 reversed but in the right spot.  It was spots 6-14 that saw a lot of movement with the biggest mover being Augusta who finished 13th compared to a prediction of 6th.  Even though Augusta is a slightly pitcher leaning park, they still performed well below expectations.

Team	Prediction	Actual	Difference
Iowa City	1	6	-5
Philadelphia	2	3	-1
Texas	3	1	+2
Cincinnati	4	2	+2
Kansas City	5	5	0
Augusta	6	13	-7
Minnesota	7	8	-1
Buffalo	8	12	-4
Little Rock	9	4	+5
New York	10	14	-4
El Paso	11	7	+4
Toronto	12	11	+1
Cheyenne	13	9	+4
Colorado Springs	14	10	+4
Charleston	15	16	-1
Sioux Falls	16	15	+1

The Pitching results were a lot more volatile but the better teams were generally better and the worse teams were generally worse.  The one exception was Buffalo who finished worst despite expecting to be middle of the pack.  The worst 3 teams said screw you to the model and finished more in the middle of the pack.

Team	Prediction	Actual	Difference
Sioux Falls	1	7	-6
Cincinnati	2	4	-2
Augusta	3	1	+2
El Paso	4	6	-2
Philadelphia	5	3	+2
Cheyenne	6	2	+4
Kansas City	7	8	-1
Buffalo	8	16	-8
Toronto	9	5	+4
Little Rock	10	14	-4
Iowa City	11	12	-1
Charleston	12	13	-1
Texas	13	15	-2
New York	14	10	+4
Minnesota	15	9	+6
Colorado Springs	16	11	+5

Now the National League and starting with the offense.  My model had the top 3 pretty well predicted as they finished as 3 of the top 4 and the bottom 5 pretty well as they finished 5 of the 6th worst teams.  Tacoma was the biggest mover, finishing 10 spots below expectation.  Some of that can be attributed to their ballpark, but they also did seem to finish below expectations.

Team	Prediction	Actual	Difference
Fresno	1	4	-3
Austin	2	1	+1
Montreal	3	3	0
New Orleans	4	10	-6
Tacoma	5	15	-10
Houston	6	6	0
Salem	7	9	-2
London	8	2	+6
Baltimore	9	8	+1
Jackson	10	7	+3
Arizona	11	5	+6
Chicago	12	13	-1
Trenton	13	11	+2
Salt Lake City	14	12	+2
New York	15	14	+1
Las Vegas	16	16	0

Finally, the NL Pitching.  My model got the #1 team and bottom 3 pegged exactly right.  Chicago and New Orleans were expected to do well and exceed expectations.  Salt Lake City was the biggest mover finishing 8 spots below expected.  Their ballpark is fairly neutral so it was more about some of their players just having a bad season than anything else.

Team	Prediction	Actual	Difference
Baltimore	1	1	0
Montreal	2	6	-4
Chicago	3	2	+1
Salt Lake City	4	12	-8
New Orleans	5	3	+2
Houston	6	11	-5
Arizona	7	8	-1
Fresno	8	4	+4
Austin	9	5	+4
Salem	10	9	+1
Jackson	11	7	+4
London	12	13	-1
Tacoma	13	10	+3
Trenton	14	14	0
New York	15	15	0
Las Vegas	16	16	0

I hope you enjoyed the first iteration of these rankings.  I'm hoping to do a little more this year including maybe incorporating the top players.

World Series 24 Preview

                        Philadelphia Unionvs     Baltimore Crab Cakes

                           (110-52)                                                                                              (100-62)

Rematch!  For World Series #24, we have the second World Series rematch in KML's history as the Philadelphia Union will be seeking their first title since Season 5 against the Baltimore Crab Cakes, looking for their 5th straight championship and 6th overall.  The last time there was a rematch (the immediate season after), it was a battle between the former Seattle and Houston franchises in seasons 7 and 8.  Houston too the Season 7 World Series in 5 games with Seattle getting revenge in a 4-game sweep.  The biggest difference between last year's 6-game Baltimore series win is that this time Philadelphia has home field advantage.  Can they do what Seattle did and get revenge?  Let's break down the matchup.

Since I wrote extensively on some of the best players from the teams in my blog post for last season's world series, I am going to use my model to talk about some of the key players.  First let's break down the top ten hitters in this series.  This model uses a scale of 20 to 80 where 50 would be considered league average (regardless of position).  Anything above 70 would be considered an offensive superstar and Philadelphia has two of them in their two MVP candidates, Carl Vining and Beau Guyer.  Vining has 7 HRs so far this postseason and seems likely to win rookie of the year.  Guyer struggled in the postseason last year finishing with just a 0.687 OPS, but has been strong in the first two rounds with an OPS of 0.989.  Philadelphia has 7 of the top 10 hitters in this series.  Baltimore's top 2 hitters are their usual MVP suspects in Charley Campbell and Henderson Long.  Campbell transitioned from CF to 1B this year.  His offense was down for his standards, but his defense was still terrific at his new position.  His offense has re-emerged in the playoffs with 4 HRs and a 1.379 OPS in 8 games.  Long similarly has been terrific in the playoffs with an OPS of 1.178.  Philadelphia would seemingly have the advantage at the plate in this series.

Rank	Player	Team	Offensive Rating
1	Carl Vining	Philadelphia	77.7
2	Beau Guyer	Philadelphia	76.2
3	Charley Campbell	Baltimore	65.8
4	Henderson Long	Baltimore	65.4
5	Dewey Zornes	Philadelphia	62.7
6	Parker Hutch	Philadelphia	60.4
7	Danry Gil	Philadelphia	57.7
8	D'Angelo Beltran	Philadelphia	54.2
9	Mel Kluber	Philadelphia	53.8
10	Caleb Barker	Baltimore	51.5

Now looking at the top 10 pitchers, Baltimore clearly appears to have the edge with 8 of the top 10.  This isn't surprising considering they had the #1 ERA in baseball again this season.  Cozy Kennedy and Mac Rollins have 6 Cy Youngs combined and are both candidates for the prestigious award again this season.  Rubi Callaway isn't an innings eater, but is elite when he is in the game.  Mac Hines is a rookie, but is already one of the best relievers in the game.  Philadelphia's two pitchers in the top ten of this list are both relievers.  Their starters are serviceable, but will need to be at their best to win the World Series.

Rank	Player	Team	Pitching Rating
1	Rubi Callaway	Baltimore	75.6
2	Mac Hines	Baltimore	72.2
3	Mac Rollins	Baltimore	71.4
4	Cozy Kennedy	Baltimore	69.2
5	Russ Burton	Philadelphia	68.5
6	Yasmani Ordonez	Baltimore	68.1
7	Kole Musial	Baltimore	67.8
8	Raul Ordonez	Philadelphia	67.5
9	Avisail Mercado	Baltimore	61.0
10	Cory Hannity	Baltimore	60.6

I don't have a defensive model ready yet, but Baltimore had 5 Gold Glove winners to Philadelphia's 0 this season.  This will be a great matchup between offense and pitching/defense.  Good luck to both teams in World Series 24!

Season 24 - NL Team Power Index Ratings

After previewing the American League, it's time to see how the National League stacks up!  In case you missed the AL, see the prior blog post for their ratings and some info on this.

NL North

Montreal (Previous season 107-55)

Offense:

OBP - 47 (out of 100)

SLG - 53

Run Creation - 50 (based on Runs Creation stat)

AL Rank - 3

Pitching:

OBP Against - 64

SLG Against - 78

AL Rank - 2

Chicago (Previous season 88-74)

Offense:

OBP - 43

SLG - 46

Run Creation - 44

AL Rank - 12

Pitching:

OBP Against - 56

SLG Against - 74

AL Rank - 3

Salt Lake City (Previous season 82-80)

Offense:

OBP - 47

SLG - 42

Run Creation - 43

AL Rank - 14

Pitching:

OBP Against - 56

SLG Against - 72

AL Rank - 4

Tacoma (Previous season 76-86)

Offense:

OBP - 52

SLG - 50

Run Creation - 49

AL Rank - 5

Pitching:

OBP Against - 45

SLG Against - 57

AL Rank - 13

NL East

Baltimore (Previous season 116-46)

Offense:

OBP - 44

SLG - 47

Run Creation - 47

AL Rank - 9

Pitching:

OBP Against - 67

SLG Against - 79

AL Rank - 1

London (Previous season 77-85)

Offense:

OBP - 47

SLG - 49

Run Creation - 47

AL Rank - 8

Pitching:

OBP Against - 41

SLG Against - 62

AL Rank - 12

Trenton (Previous season 65-97)

Offense:

OBP - 51

SLG - 44

Run Creation - 43

AL Rank - 13

Pitching:

OBP Against - 41

SLG Against - 61

AL Rank - 14

New York (Previous season 54-108)

Offense:

OBP - 42

SLG - 39

Run Creation - 37

AL Rank - 15

Pitching:

OBP Against - 34

SLG Against - 50

AL Rank - 15

NL South

New Orleans (Previous season 93-69)

Offense:

OBP - 58

SLG - 45

Run Creation - 50

AL Rank - 4

Pitching:

OBP Against - 57

SLG Against - 69

AL Rank - 5

Austin (Previous season 87-75)

Offense:

OBP - 59

SLG - 46

Run Creation - 51

AL Rank - 2

Pitching:

OBP Against - 52

SLG Against - 62

AL Rank - 9

Jackson (Previous season 87-75)

Offense:

OBP - 48

SLG - 46

Run Creation - 46

AL Rank - 10

Pitching:

OBP Against - 45

SLG Against - 59

AL Rank - 11

Houston (Previous season 77-85)

Offense:

OBP - 49

SLG - 49

Run Creation - 48

AL Rank - 6

Pitching:

OBP Against - 53

SLG Against - 69

AL Rank - 6

NL West

Fresno (Previous season 93-69)

Offense:

OBP - 48

SLG - 52

Run Creation - 53

AL Rank - 1

Pitching:

OBP Against - 50

SLG Against - 64

AL Rank - 8

Salem (Previous season 77-85)

Offense:

OBP - 53

SLG - 46

Run Creation - 48

AL Rank - 7

Pitching:

OBP Against - 46

SLG Against - 60

AL Rank - 10

Arizona (Previous season 63-99)

Offense:

OBP - 51

SLG - 44

Run Creation - 45

AL Rank - 11

Pitching:

OBP Against - 51

SLG Against - 63

AL Rank - 7

Las Vegas (Previous season 50-112)

Offense:

OBP - 35

SLG - 42

Run Creation - 36

AL Rank - 16

Pitching:

OBP Against - 28

SLG Against - 50

AL Rank - 16

Season 24 - AL Team Power Index Ratings

This is a new addition I would like to do annually.  I will likely never have as much time as I would like to analyze every team, but I'd like to incorporate a player model that I have been slowly building.  Currently it takes awhile to bring in all of the data I need, but I am trying to make a file where I just need to pull in the Roster and Ratings page from a team's page which I can easily pull into Google Sheets.  There are still some limitations, but it should for the most part give me what I need.

Some comments about my player model:

1. This is still a work-in-progress.  The same team might get a different rating in a future year if I've updated any assumptions.
2. The model will produce numbers based on a neutral park.  Thus, teams in pitchers parks will likely outperform my model's pitching expectations and similarly a team in a hitters park will likely outperform my model's hitting expectations.
3. I don't have fielding done yet, but that's something I would like to include in the future.
4. I haven't yet differentiated starting pitchers from relief pitchers.  Stamina doesn't matter in my model.
5. My model seems to be harder on hitters than pitchers, and it's something I need to investigate more.
6. Please don't ask me for my model parameters.  I may share more info about it later, but not right now :)

One other thing to note.  I am doing this now when it's still Spring Training.  There will likely be players called up on some teams that I cannot anticipate.  That can obviously play a role on how good a team is.  Also, these are not all being done on the same day, so it's possible some moves happen before this gets posted.

For now, I just plan to give a team rating for each team (I may go back and post projected OBP and SLG later).  I hope to add more in future iterations of this.  The team rating is an average of all hitters or pitchers.  I'm not sure this is the best approach, but it's the easiest approach right now.  Without further ado, let's get started!

AL North

Sioux Falls (Previous season 74-88)

Offense:

OBP - 41 (out of 100)

SLG - 35

Run Creation - 39 (based on Runs Creation stat)

AL Rank - 16

Pitching:

OBP Against - 61

SLG Against - 74

AL Rank - 1

New York (Previous season 61-101)

Offense:

OBP - 51

SLG - 49

Run Creation - 47

AL Rank - 10

Pitching:

OBP Against - 43

SLG Against - 58

AL Rank - 14

Minnesota (Previous season 81-81)

Offense:

OBP - 56

SLG - 51

Run Creation - 52

AL Rank - 7

Pitching:

OBP Against - 42

SLG Against - 57

AL Rank - 15

Toronto (Previous season 91-71)

Offense:

OBP - 47

SLG - 42

Run Creation - 45

AL Rank - 12

Pitching:

OBP Against - 46

SLG Against - 63

AL Rank - 9

AL East

Augusta (Previous season 87-75)

Offense:

OBP - 48

SLG - 53

Run Creation - 52

AL Rank - 6

Pitching:

OBP Against - 55

SLG Against - 70

AL Rank - 3

Buffalo (Previous season 60-102)

Offense:

OBP - 48

SLG - 53

Run Creation - 50

AL Rank - 8

Pitching:

OBP Against - 50

SLG Against - 65

AL Rank - 8

Cincinnati (Previous season 93-69)

Offense:

OBP - 52

SLG - 57

Run Creation - 54

AL Rank - 4

Pitching:

OBP Against - 59

SLG Against - 70

AL Rank - 2

Philadelphia (Previous season 100-62)

Offense:

OBP - 52

SLG - 54

Run Creation - 55

AL Rank - 2

Pitching:

OBP Against - 54

SLG Against - 69

AL Rank - 5

AL South

Texas (Previous season 83-79)

Offense:

OBP - 56

SLG - 53

Run Creation - 55

AL Rank - 3

Pitching:

OBP Against - 43

SLG Against - 59

AL Rank - 13

Charleston (Previous season 71-91)

Offense:

OBP - 47

SLG - 41

Run Creation - 41

AL Rank - 15

Pitching:

OBP Against - 41

SLG Against - 61

AL Rank - 12

El Paso (Previous season 99-63)

Offense:

OBP - 48

SLG - 44

Run Creation - 46

AL Rank - 11

Pitching:

OBP Against - 57

SLG Against - 67

AL Rank - 4

Little Rock (Previous season 48-114)

Offense:

OBP - 53

SLG - 48

Run Creation - 49

AL Rank - 9

Pitching:

OBP Against - 45

SLG Against - 62

AL Rank - 10

AL West

Iowa City (Previous season 81-81)

Offense:

OBP - 61

SLG - 53

Run Creation - 56

AL Rank - 1

Pitching:

OBP Against - 46

SLG Against - 59

AL Rank - 11

Cheyenne (Previous season 98-64)

Offense:

OBP - 53

SLG - 42

Run Creation - 45

AL Rank - 13

Pitching:

OBP Against - 54

SLG Against - 68

AL Rank - 6

Colorado Springs (Previous season 89-73)

Offense:

OBP - 44

SLG - 46

Run Creation - 44

AL Rank - 14

Pitching:

OBP Against - 38

SLG Against - 56

AL Rank - 16

Kansas City (Previous season 84-78)

Offense:

OBP - 57

SLG - 50

Run Creation - 53

AL Rank - 5

Pitching:

OBP Against - 52

SLG Against - 66

AL Rank - 7