HOF Candidates for Season 22

Spring Training has begun in Kenesaw Mountain Landis, and that means it's time to vote for players to be forever enshrined in the Hall of Fame.  So far six players in the league's history have had their names immortalized, and now it's time to see who will join them.  Let's break down some of the top candidates:

Should Be A Lock

Juan Alvarez - The world's all-time leader in hits (3,351), doubles (600), RBIs (1,998), and 2nd all time in home runs (699), Alvarez should be a lock to have his name enshrined in the HOF this season.  He is one of the most complete hitters in league history, with only future HOFer Kirk Michaels really rivaling him in some of these categories.  Alvarez is an 11x all star, a 10x silver slugger, a 3x MVP, and he even hit for the cycle and won a HR Derby.  

Could Go Either Way

Walt Belisle - I debated where to put Walt Belisle, as he is one of the more intriguing players on this list.  He played his enter major league career in Seattle, so he had the help of a more pitcher friendly ballpark and an excellent team behind him.  This helped him finish 3rd all time in wins with 306 and he finished with a career ERA of 3.38. He had 9 all star appearances and even won 1 Cy Young award.  His strikeout rate wasn't as impressive as some other pitchers on this list, but he still finished with 2,664 Ks for his career.  I do wonder if he pitched his entire career with another team would he have the stats, but I do think he deserves consideration.

Joakim Fernandez - Another long-time Seattle player, Fernandez has the award history you would expect from a hall of famer.  He won AL Rookie of the Year in Season 5, appeared in 9 all star games, was a silver slugger winner 5 times, and won 2 gold gloves in LF.  He doesn't have an MVP award which I think puts him a notch below being a lock, but he does have 2,404 hits and 489 HRs for his career history, and his numbers likely would have been more impressive in a more hitter friendly ballpark.

Trey Munro - I think I am a little bit higher on Trey Munro than most, but I think he should be in the HOF.  Unfortunately for him, he hasn't gotten the votes needed in his first couple of years of eligibility.  Early in his career, he didn't play on some of the best teams and I think that affected his numbers.  He really hit his stride when he signed with Charlotte in Season 9.  That's where had had 4 of his 5 all star appearances, won his only Cy Young and threw his only No Hitter.  He finished his career with an ERA of 3.12 and is 2nd all time in strikeouts with 3,063.  He is also 3rd all time in quality starts with 340 despite only starting 500 games for his career.

Chadd Kendrick - Kendrick is someone that I and some others have overlooked, but I think he deserves consideration for the HOF.  His 536 saves are 5th all time, and he finished his career with a staggering 2.19 ERA which is 2nd all time, only to the great Cookie Figaro.  His .907 save percentage is the best of all qualified pitchers in league history.  He is also a 10x all star and a 4x Fireman of the Year.  The only knock on him is his innings pitched, as he had only 915 for his career, but he was dominant in those innings.  Considering how hard it is for a closer to win Cy Young, I think he has done enough to get the nod for the HOF.

Charles Payton - Another player that some may have overlooked, Payton has come close to the HOF getting as many as 11 votes, but hasn't gotten over the hump yet.  He has a career slash line of 0.308/0.376/0.537 along with 2,458 hits and 461 HRs.  He won Rookie of the Year, was an all star 7 times, silver slugger 5 times, and won 2 MVP awards.  He did have the benefit of playing in some hitters parks such as Toronto and Texas, but his numbers are still good enough to warrant consideration for the HOF.

Sean Turner - Despite playing over half his career in Seattle, Sean Turner's numbers were very good for playing so many games in a pitcher's ballpark.  He finished with 547 HRs. 2,285 hits, and a career 0.886 OPS.  He was also a 3x silver slugger, 2x all star and most impressively, a 2x MVP.

Livan Guerrero - Another excellent reliever, Livan Guerrero is the all time saves leader with 691.  He also has a whopping 10 all star game appearances and 6 Fireman of the Year awards.  He also has two seasons pre-merger, so it's very possible/likely he has over 700 saves for his career.  The knock however is on his ERA which finished at 3.80.  Thus, I have to put Kendrick over him in terms of closers, but Guerrero is someone I could see making the HOF in the future.

Good Stats But Lacking Accolades

Peter Donald - Another pitcher who falls firmly into the polarizing category, Peter Donald was a strikeout machine, but his ERA was lacking.  He's the world's all time leader in strikeouts with 3,243 and his 265 wins are currently 5th all time, but his ERA barely starts with a 3, at 3.99.  Despite that ERA, he has the most quality starts in league history with 374, so when he was on he was hard to hit.  However, had only 3 all star games to his resume, and no other awards.  I think if he managed to win a Cy Young or two, he would be a lock, but it's hard for me to see him make the HOF with an almost-4 ERA.

Del Matsumoto - He is 3rd all time in saves with 596, has 6 all star games and 1 Fireman of the Year award along with a 2.91 ERA for his career.  I debated putting him in the either way category, but I felt like the other closers on this list were more deserving based on their award history.

Rico Guerrero - Rico Guerrero did not get a nomination, but I wrote this up about him ahead of time.  After spending his entire big league career in Montreal, Rico Guerrero has some really good numbers to his name - a career slash line of 0.312/0.381/0.537, 2,594 hits, and 470 HRs.  However, he only has 2 all star appearances and 2 silver sluggers to his name in addition to winning Rookie of the Year.  The lack of awards come from the fact that he was a converted catcher in right field, meaning he had a ton of errors and negative plays going against him. 

My votes:

• Juan Alvarez
• Trey Munro
• Chadd Kendrick
• Joakim Fernandez
• Walt Belisle

World Series 21 Preview

  

                       

                      Toronto Savagevs     Baltimore Crab Cakes

                              (103-59)                                                                                              (116-46)

Don't call it a dynasty...yet.  The 21st World Series is here, and the Baltimore Crab Cakes are seeking their 3rd title in 4 seasons.  Standing in their way is the Toronto Savage in a rematch of the Season 18 World Series.  Toronto was swept in that series, but they've added some new faces since then and now they're looking for revenge.  Let's break down the matchup.

Toronto is led by shiish who is an original KML owner.  After a slow start with Toronto, shiish has led the Savage to the playoffs for 10 straight seasons including 9 consecutive division titles.  They swept Jacksonville in the ALDS and defeated El Paso in 6 games to reach the World Series for the 2nd time.  Toronto's strength is in their starting pitching, with 3 finalists for the AL Cy Young award.  Irving Montanez is the long time Toronto veteran. He suffered through the 4-0 sweep at the hands of the Crab Cakes, but this time he has help in the form of Robel Andersen and Ray Carter, the two other Toronto Cy Young candidates who weren't on the team three seasons ago.  Reymond Vega is the anchor in the bullpen and finished with 48 saves.  They will need to shut down the Baltimore offense to win this series. Toronto's offense was also solid, finishing 8th in runs scored.  They are led by MVP candidate Yonder Neruda (0.302/0.394/0.529) who was 5th in the majors in OBP this season and slugger, Yamid Moreno (0.292/0.351/0.620).  The power hitter Moreno was picked up in a trade last season and finished this season tied for 10th in HRs with 46.   If speedy leadoff man Stu Richardson can get on base, it will be up to Neruda and Moreno to drive him home.  Toronto finished tied for the AL's best record with Seattle and won the tiebreaker for the #1 seed.

Baltimore is led by aoscott2 who took over a rebuilding team and has turned them into a powerhouse.  In this year's playoffs, they swept Fresno in the NLDS and overcame Chicago in 6 games. Similar to Toronto, Baltimore is led by their pitching staff and had the best ERA in baseball. They have four(!!) Cy Young candidates.  Cozy Kennedy has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the league having won the previous four Cy Young awards, but his teammate Mac Rollins may have dethroned him after finishing the year with 21 wins and a 1.94 ERA. Avisail Mercado and Yasmani Ordonez round out the rest of the rotation for a team that allowed only 477 runs, less than 3 per game. Their offense wasn't quite as good as last year's #1 offense but they still managed to finish the season at 9th in runs scored.  They have a trio of MVP candidates, including Henderson Long who was 3rd the the majors in HRs at 57, and the walk machines Charley Campbell and Marquis Affeldt who were 2nd and 3rd in the majors in BBs with 103 and 100, respectively. 

In a matchup of two teams that both have dominant pitching and above average offenses, the team that can get those timely hits will be the one to hoist the trophy in the end. If Toronto wins, it will be obviously a big celebration for their first championship. If Baltimore wins, I think we can safely call them a dynasty. Good luck to both teams in World Series 21!

Meet the Owner: seattleace

Welcome to our first "Meet the Owner" series!  Based on some feedback I've gotten on blog ideas, this seemed like a good way to get to know some of the other owners around the league.  I figured I would start with one of our original owners, seattleace who has led his team to 10 AL pennants and 7 titles in KML's first 20 seasons.  Thank you so much to seattleace for doing this and giving some great responses!  Without further ado, here is what we learned about seattleace:

Who are your favorite sports teams and/or athletes?

Seattle everything.  The Mariners are at the top, but love the Seahawks and like the Kraken.  Miss the Sonics. Edgar Martinez is my all time favorite, with Griffey Jr, Russ Wilson, Harold Reynolds (personal experience with him), and Steve Largent + Jim Zorn right up there. 

What has been your favorite real-life sports experience or memory?

#1 is '95 ALDS, when Edgar drove Griffey home to beat the Yankees.  Personally, I played HS sports, but our school stunk across the board and I was pretty average.

What about your favorite HBD experience?

I'd say finding my game.  It took awhile.  There are 2 parts to this game; GM and Manager.  The amount of time I have spent using Excel and PPT to map out which part of the field hitters are hitting to (using play by play, "line drive single to LCF - I'd color code these onto a PPT), then putting them into Excel, apply opposing pitcher strengths/weaknesses, i.e. GB/FB, Velocity, et al.  Even looking at pitch types.  It was a colossal waste of time.  This may change with new ownership, though the "weighting" of so many attributes are inferior to a handful of core ones.

Once I found a rhythm in my gameplay strategy, the GM role came into place, organically.  Ballpark IS a very big piece.  So what works for me in Seattle, with a deep LCF & RCF, may not work so well, in say Madison.  And if you are in Yankee stadium, your CF wall is 100 feet shorter than most all other ballparks...you play 81+ games there.

So I've gotten to a point where I feel good about playing Seattle, weighting that short list of core player attributes, updating manager settings, and using historical stats more than anything.  All the data is there.  Just one example; if a hitter has a number of GIDP compared to PA, don't put him after a singles or high walks rate hitter.  If your opponent attempts a ton of SB, make sure your catcher has a good arm = high CS rate.

So that's it.  Just getting to a point where I am both comfortable with playing the game, having fun with it, and not overthinking it and wasting a bunch of time on finding low-likelihood predictors.

What advice would you give to a newer user that is just starting HBD?

Number 1, look at what experienced and successful owners are doing.  My first ring came in Hornsby, and there was a player named mcbain10, who not only did I dig deep into how he sets his rosters day to day, and his gameplay settings,  but where he allocated his budget, etc.  and what were the most common attributes of his players, and which ones he did not prioritize.  Plus, he was cool.  He'd answer questions that many players would not, due to the competitive nature of this game.  So reach out to owners.  We'll all be better as a world, if you get better and stick around for a long time.  

Number 2, know your ballpark, and have a strategy around it.  Build your entire team around your ballpark.  Look at other worlds, go look at other franchises who play in your ballpark.  Are they successful?  What's making them successful?  A good tactic for this is to look at players stats, then apply Home vs. Away splits.  Do they overperform at Home (or in my case with Seattle, are they even or close)?

Number 3, not all Attributes are equal.  Not even close.  My opinion, for pitchers and batters alike, vs.R is King and vs.L Queen.  That's not to suggest you ignore the others, they are important (most of them), but a player's dynamic and likelihood for success (in your ballpark, mainly), becomes an equation that you'll want to understand sooner than later.  99 Power is useless if he has 7 Contact and his splits are 24/26.  100 Velocity is useless if his control is 37, and his splits are low.  If you're playing Yankee stadium, a hitter with 85 PWR and 50 GB/FB, is probably going to hit more HR's at home than a RH hitter with 92 PWR and a 33 GB/FB in Safeco, because my LCF is 388, and Yankee stadium's CF is 308.

Number 4, Last thing, despite much of what I said above, it's NOT easy to be successful.  You're playing with people who have 100's of seasons of learnings and failures.  Focus on finding your game.  Be it Whitey-Ball with staunch defense, baserunning, and pitching, and the occasional 3-run homer...or whatever, find where you begin to identify understandings and build on those.

So with all that said, know your ballpark, look at player attributes, but most importantly, use the data - the stats.  At scale, it doesn't lie.  And use them for both building your team, but also gameplanning your opponents.

Outside of HBD, what are some of your other interests and hobbies?

I play a lot of pickup soccer and basketball, some crappy golf outings, work a lot, family time...try to watch sports, but less so now when trying to find a game is like a scavenger hunt with all the apps out there.  But HBD is my biggest "time suck", but I enjoy it.  Especially this world.

Thank you once again to seattleace!  Great information here!

World Series 20 Preview

 

                       

                      El Paso Don Juan'svs     Baltimore Crab Cakes

                              (91-71)                                                                                              (115-47)

The World Series is here for the 20th time, with a long awaited matchup between the upstart El Paso Don Juan's in the American League against the juggernauts of the National League, the Baltimore Crab Cakes. Based off of records alone, this feels like a matchup of David vs. Goliath, as the 24-win difference* is tied for the largest in any World Series in league history.  However, El Paso should not be overlooked, as they have been giant killers in the last couple of rounds, taking out perennial AL favorites in Toronto and Seattle in 5 games and 7 games, respectively.  Combined with their 4-game series win in the first round, El Paso has played 16 out of a possible 17 games thus far.  So while they're happy to be here, will the fatigue of playing so many games prevent them from toppling one more foe?  Baltimore on the other hand has been one of the favorites all season and should be more rested having only needed 10 games out of a possible 12 to get to the World Series.  They're looking for their 2nd title in a 3-season span and want to start cementing a possible dynasty.  Let's break down the matchup.

El Paso is led by justinuv who was a mid-season replacement in Season 15 and after taking over a team in complete disarray and turned them around in a hurry.  El Paso has won the division 3 of the past 5 seasons, and is having their best playoff success this year.  Their strength is their pitching staff, finishing 4th in ERA with all stars in closer Walt Ratliff and SP Brutus Munro.  Their other top two starters Shane Blevins and Bart Ward are no slouches either.  They helped shutout Seattle in games 6 and 7 of the ALCS to clinch the first pennant in franchise history.  Offensively, they are more middle of the road finishing 16th in runs scored this season.  Their offense revolves around MVP candidate Jair Rodrigo (0.274/0.344/0.526) who finished 2nd in the entire league in HRs at 49, but they also have some solid hitters in Alex Rupp and OBP machine Gil Arnold.  It has been a struggle so far these playoffs for most of the offense not named Rodrigo.  A player to watch is CF Fred Argo, known more for his defense but he has a 0.348 OBP in these playoffs and could be a good table setter for Rodrigo.

Baltimore is led by aoscott2 who took over rebuilding team and has turned them into a powerhouse.  It would take me too long to list every one of their star players, but let's talk about a few of them.  They are led by arguably the best hitter in the league in CF Charley Campbell (0.314/0.384/0.664) who led the league in HRs (55) and RBIs (146), was an all star, and won the gold glove and silver slugger at CF this season.  LF Robin Boucher and RF Henderson Long are also tremendous and MVP candidates along with Campbell making up the best outfield in the league, and leading the #1 offense in baseball this season.  Baltimore also has three Cy Young candidates in SP trio Cozy Kennedy, Yasmani Ordonez, and Mac Rollins who helped lead Baltimore to the 2nd best ERA in the league.

For El Paso to win this series, their big 3 of SPs needs to shut down the Baltimore offense and they need to scrap together enough runs to win.  In Baltimore that will be easier said than done given the homer friendly confines, but back home where it's more pitcher friendly they may be able to take advantage.  Good luck to both teams in World Series 20!

*By the way in case you're curious, that other team that was 24 wins better than its opponent in the World Series ended up losing in 5 games (Season 7, Houston over Seattle).