Monday, November 18, 2024

Meet the Owner: seattleace

Welcome to our first "Meet the Owner" series!  Based on some feedback I've gotten on blog ideas, this seemed like a good way to get to know some of the other owners around the league.  I figured I would start with one of our original owners, seattleace who has led his team to 10 AL pennants and 7 titles in KML's first 20 seasons.  Thank you so much to seattleace for doing this and giving some great responses!  Without further ado, here is what we learned about seattleace:

Who are your favorite sports teams and/or athletes?
Seattle everything.  The Mariners are at the top, but love the Seahawks and like the Kraken.  Miss the Sonics. Edgar Martinez is my all time favorite, with Griffey Jr, Russ Wilson, Harold Reynolds (personal experience with him), and Steve Largent + Jim Zorn right up there. 

What has been your favorite real-life sports experience or memory?
#1 is '95 ALDS, when Edgar drove Griffey home to beat the Yankees.  Personally, I played HS sports, but our school stunk across the board and I was pretty average.

What about your favorite HBD experience?
I'd say finding my game.  It took awhile.  There are 2 parts to this game; GM and Manager.  The amount of time I have spent using Excel and PPT to map out which part of the field hitters are hitting to (using play by play, "line drive single to LCF - I'd color code these onto a PPT), then putting them into Excel, apply opposing pitcher strengths/weaknesses, i.e. GB/FB, Velocity, et al.  Even looking at pitch types.  It was a colossal waste of time.  This may change with new ownership, though the "weighting" of so many attributes are inferior to a handful of core ones.

Once I found a rhythm in my gameplay strategy, the GM role came into place, organically.  Ballpark IS a very big piece.  So what works for me in Seattle, with a deep LCF & RCF, may not work so well, in say Madison.  And if you are in Yankee stadium, your CF wall is 100 feet shorter than most all other ballparks...you play 81+ games there.

So I've gotten to a point where I feel good about playing Seattle, weighting that short list of core player attributes, updating manager settings, and using historical stats more than anything.  All the data is there.  Just one example; if a hitter has a number of GIDP compared to PA, don't put him after a singles or high walks rate hitter.  If your opponent attempts a ton of SB, make sure your catcher has a good arm = high CS rate.

So that's it.  Just getting to a point where I am both comfortable with playing the game, having fun with it, and not overthinking it and wasting a bunch of time on finding low-likelihood predictors.

What advice would you give to a newer user that is just starting HBD?
Number 1, look at what experienced and successful owners are doing.  My first ring came in Hornsby, and there was a player named mcbain10, who not only did I dig deep into how he sets his rosters day to day, and his gameplay settings,  but where he allocated his budget, etc.  and what were the most common attributes of his players, and which ones he did not prioritize.  Plus, he was cool.  He'd answer questions that many players would not, due to the competitive nature of this game.  So reach out to owners.  We'll all be better as a world, if you get better and stick around for a long time.  

Number 2, know your ballpark, and have a strategy around it.  Build your entire team around your ballpark.  Look at other worlds, go look at other franchises who play in your ballpark.  Are they successful?  What's making them successful?  A good tactic for this is to look at players stats, then apply Home vs. Away splits.  Do they overperform at Home (or in my case with Seattle, are they even or close)?

Number 3, not all Attributes are equal.  Not even close.  My opinion, for pitchers and batters alike, vs.R is King and vs.L Queen.  That's not to suggest you ignore the others, they are important (most of them), but a player's dynamic and likelihood for success (in your ballpark, mainly), becomes an equation that you'll want to understand sooner than later.  99 Power is useless if he has 7 Contact and his splits are 24/26.  100 Velocity is useless if his control is 37, and his splits are low.  If you're playing Yankee stadium, a hitter with 85 PWR and 50 GB/FB, is probably going to hit more HR's at home than a RH hitter with 92 PWR and a 33 GB/FB in Safeco, because my LCF is 388, and Yankee stadium's CF is 308.

Number 4, Last thing, despite much of what I said above, it's NOT easy to be successful.  You're playing with people who have 100's of seasons of learnings and failures.  Focus on finding your game.  Be it Whitey-Ball with staunch defense, baserunning, and pitching, and the occasional 3-run homer...or whatever, find where you begin to identify understandings and build on those.

So with all that said, know your ballpark, look at player attributes, but most importantly, use the data - the stats.  At scale, it doesn't lie.  And use them for both building your team, but also gameplanning your opponents.

Outside of HBD, what are some of your other interests and hobbies?
I play a lot of pickup soccer and basketball, some crappy golf outings, work a lot, family time...try to watch sports, but less so now when trying to find a game is like a scavenger hunt with all the apps out there.  But HBD is my biggest "time suck", but I enjoy it.  Especially this world.

Thank you once again to seattleace!  Great information here!

Friday, October 18, 2024

World Series 20 Preview

 

                       
                      El Paso Don Juan'svs     Baltimore Crab Cakes
                              (91-71)                                                                                              (115-47)

The World Series is here for the 20th time, with a long awaited matchup between the upstart El Paso Don Juan's in the American League against the juggernauts of the National League, the Baltimore Crab Cakes. Based off of records alone, this feels like a matchup of David vs. Goliath, as the 24-win difference* is tied for the largest in any World Series in league history.  However, El Paso should not be overlooked, as they have been giant killers in the last couple of rounds, taking out perennial AL favorites in Toronto and Seattle in 5 games and 7 games, respectively.  Combined with their 4-game series win in the first round, El Paso has played 16 out of a possible 17 games thus far.  So while they're happy to be here, will the fatigue of playing so many games prevent them from toppling one more foe?  Baltimore on the other hand has been one of the favorites all season and should be more rested having only needed 10 games out of a possible 12 to get to the World Series.  They're looking for their 2nd title in a 3-season span and want to start cementing a possible dynasty.  Let's break down the matchup.

El Paso is led by justinuv who was a mid-season replacement in Season 15 and after taking over a team in complete disarray and turned them around in a hurry.  El Paso has won the division 3 of the past 5 seasons, and is having their best playoff success this year.  Their strength is their pitching staff, finishing 4th in ERA with all stars in closer Walt Ratliff and SP Brutus Munro.  Their other top two starters Shane Blevins and Bart Ward are no slouches either.  They helped shutout Seattle in games 6 and 7 of the ALCS to clinch the first pennant in franchise history.  Offensively, they are more middle of the road finishing 16th in runs scored this season.  Their offense revolves around MVP candidate Jair Rodrigo (0.274/0.344/0.526) who finished 2nd in the entire league in HRs at 49, but they also have some solid hitters in Alex Rupp and OBP machine Gil Arnold.  It has been a struggle so far these playoffs for most of the offense not named Rodrigo.  A player to watch is CF Fred Argo, known more for his defense but he has a 0.348 OBP in these playoffs and could be a good table setter for Rodrigo.

Baltimore is led by aoscott2 who took over rebuilding team and has turned them into a powerhouse.  It would take me too long to list every one of their star players, but let's talk about a few of them.  They are led by arguably the best hitter in the league in CF Charley Campbell (0.314/0.384/0.664) who led the league in HRs (55) and RBIs (146), was an all star, and won the gold glove and silver slugger at CF this season.  LF Robin Boucher and RF Henderson Long are also tremendous and MVP candidates along with Campbell making up the best outfield in the league, and leading the #1 offense in baseball this season.  Baltimore also has three Cy Young candidates in SP trio Cozy Kennedy, Yasmani Ordonez, and Mac Rollins who helped lead Baltimore to the 2nd best ERA in the league.

For El Paso to win this series, their big 3 of SPs needs to shut down the Baltimore offense and they need to scrap together enough runs to win.  In Baltimore that will be easier said than done given the homer friendly confines, but back home where it's more pitcher friendly they may be able to take advantage.  Good luck to both teams in World Series 20!


*By the way in case you're curious, that other team that was 24 wins better than its opponent in the World Series ended up losing in 5 games (Season 7, Houston over Seattle).

Meet the Owner: seattleace

Welcome to our first "Meet the Owner" series!  Based on some feedback I've gotten on blog ideas, this seemed like a good way t...