I was curious to see how my team power ratings matched up with actual results. I am comparing runs scored for the offense and runs against for the pitching with my preseason rankings by league. As a reminder, my predictions were just based on average hitter and average pitcher without factoring in how many plate appearances or innings pitched each player would get. My model also assumes a neutral ballpark, so naturally teams may differ from expected just based on their ballpark. Thus, I wouldn't expect things to be perfect, but it's still fun to see how things played out in Season 24.
Let's start with the American League Offense. My model had the top 5 pegged pretty well with 4 of the top 5 finishing in the top 5. The exception was Iowa City who finished 6th, who does play in a pitcher's ballpark so that could be the reason. My model also had the bottom 2 reversed but in the right spot. It was spots 6-14 that saw a lot of movement with the biggest mover being Augusta who finished 13th compared to a prediction of 6th. Even though Augusta is a slightly pitcher leaning park, they still performed well below expectations.
| Team | Prediction | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa City | 1 | 6 | -5 |
| Philadelphia | 2 | 3 | -1 |
| Texas | 3 | 1 | +2 |
| Cincinnati | 4 | 2 | +2 |
| Kansas City | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Augusta | 6 | 13 | -7 |
| Minnesota | 7 | 8 | -1 |
| Buffalo | 8 | 12 | -4 |
| Little Rock | 9 | 4 | +5 |
| New York | 10 | 14 | -4 |
| El Paso | 11 | 7 | +4 |
| Toronto | 12 | 11 | +1 |
| Cheyenne | 13 | 9 | +4 |
| Colorado Springs | 14 | 10 | +4 |
| Charleston | 15 | 16 | -1 |
| Sioux Falls | 16 | 15 | +1 |
The Pitching results were a lot more volatile but the better teams were generally better and the worse teams were generally worse. The one exception was Buffalo who finished worst despite expecting to be middle of the pack. The worst 3 teams said screw you to the model and finished more in the middle of the pack.
| Team | Prediction | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sioux Falls | 1 | 7 | -6 |
| Cincinnati | 2 | 4 | -2 |
| Augusta | 3 | 1 | +2 |
| El Paso | 4 | 6 | -2 |
| Philadelphia | 5 | 3 | +2 |
| Cheyenne | 6 | 2 | +4 |
| Kansas City | 7 | 8 | -1 |
| Buffalo | 8 | 16 | -8 |
| Toronto | 9 | 5 | +4 |
| Little Rock | 10 | 14 | -4 |
| Iowa City | 11 | 12 | -1 |
| Charleston | 12 | 13 | -1 |
| Texas | 13 | 15 | -2 |
| New York | 14 | 10 | +4 |
| Minnesota | 15 | 9 | +6 |
| Colorado Springs | 16 | 11 | +5 |
Now the National League and starting with the offense. My model had the top 3 pretty well predicted as they finished as 3 of the top 4 and the bottom 5 pretty well as they finished 5 of the 6th worst teams. Tacoma was the biggest mover, finishing 10 spots below expectation. Some of that can be attributed to their ballpark, but they also did seem to finish below expectations.
| Team | Prediction | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno | 1 | 4 | -3 |
| Austin | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| Montreal | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| New Orleans | 4 | 10 | -6 |
| Tacoma | 5 | 15 | -10 |
| Houston | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Salem | 7 | 9 | -2 |
| London | 8 | 2 | +6 |
| Baltimore | 9 | 8 | +1 |
| Jackson | 10 | 7 | +3 |
| Arizona | 11 | 5 | +6 |
| Chicago | 12 | 13 | -1 |
| Trenton | 13 | 11 | +2 |
| Salt Lake City | 14 | 12 | +2 |
| New York | 15 | 14 | +1 |
| Las Vegas | 16 | 16 | 0 |
Finally, the NL Pitching. My model got the #1 team and bottom 3 pegged exactly right. Chicago and New Orleans were expected to do well and exceed expectations. Salt Lake City was the biggest mover finishing 8 spots below expected. Their ballpark is fairly neutral so it was more about some of their players just having a bad season than anything else.
| Team | Prediction | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Montreal | 2 | 6 | -4 |
| Chicago | 3 | 2 | +1 |
| Salt Lake City | 4 | 12 | -8 |
| New Orleans | 5 | 3 | +2 |
| Houston | 6 | 11 | -5 |
| Arizona | 7 | 8 | -1 |
| Fresno | 8 | 4 | +4 |
| Austin | 9 | 5 | +4 |
| Salem | 10 | 9 | +1 |
| Jackson | 11 | 7 | +4 |
| London | 12 | 13 | -1 |
| Tacoma | 13 | 10 | +3 |
| Trenton | 14 | 14 | 0 |
| New York | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| Las Vegas | 16 | 16 | 0 |
I hope you enjoyed the first iteration of these rankings. I'm hoping to do a little more this year including maybe incorporating the top players.
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