Season 24 - NL Team Power Index Ratings

After previewing the American League, it's time to see how the National League stacks up!  In case you missed the AL, see the prior blog post for their ratings and some info on this.

NL North

Montreal (Previous season 107-55)

Offense:

OBP - 47 (out of 100)

SLG - 53

Run Creation - 50 (based on Runs Creation stat)

AL Rank - 3

Pitching:

OBP Against - 64

SLG Against - 78

AL Rank - 2

Chicago (Previous season 88-74)

Offense:

OBP - 43

SLG - 46

Run Creation - 44

AL Rank - 12

Pitching:

OBP Against - 56

SLG Against - 74

AL Rank - 3

Salt Lake City (Previous season 82-80)

Offense:

OBP - 47

SLG - 42

Run Creation - 43

AL Rank - 14

Pitching:

OBP Against - 56

SLG Against - 72

AL Rank - 4

Tacoma (Previous season 76-86)

Offense:

OBP - 52

SLG - 50

Run Creation - 49

AL Rank - 5

Pitching:

OBP Against - 45

SLG Against - 57

AL Rank - 13

NL East

Baltimore (Previous season 116-46)

Offense:

OBP - 44

SLG - 47

Run Creation - 47

AL Rank - 9

Pitching:

OBP Against - 67

SLG Against - 79

AL Rank - 1

London (Previous season 77-85)

Offense:

OBP - 47

SLG - 49

Run Creation - 47

AL Rank - 8

Pitching:

OBP Against - 41

SLG Against - 62

AL Rank - 12

Trenton (Previous season 65-97)

Offense:

OBP - 51

SLG - 44

Run Creation - 43

AL Rank - 13

Pitching:

OBP Against - 41

SLG Against - 61

AL Rank - 14

New York (Previous season 54-108)

Offense:

OBP - 42

SLG - 39

Run Creation - 37

AL Rank - 15

Pitching:

OBP Against - 34

SLG Against - 50

AL Rank - 15

NL South

New Orleans (Previous season 93-69)

Offense:

OBP - 58

SLG - 45

Run Creation - 50

AL Rank - 4

Pitching:

OBP Against - 57

SLG Against - 69

AL Rank - 5

Austin (Previous season 87-75)

Offense:

OBP - 59

SLG - 46

Run Creation - 51

AL Rank - 2

Pitching:

OBP Against - 52

SLG Against - 62

AL Rank - 9

Jackson (Previous season 87-75)

Offense:

OBP - 48

SLG - 46

Run Creation - 46

AL Rank - 10

Pitching:

OBP Against - 45

SLG Against - 59

AL Rank - 11

Houston (Previous season 77-85)

Offense:

OBP - 49

SLG - 49

Run Creation - 48

AL Rank - 6

Pitching:

OBP Against - 53

SLG Against - 69

AL Rank - 6

NL West

Fresno (Previous season 93-69)

Offense:

OBP - 48

SLG - 52

Run Creation - 53

AL Rank - 1

Pitching:

OBP Against - 50

SLG Against - 64

AL Rank - 8

Salem (Previous season 77-85)

Offense:

OBP - 53

SLG - 46

Run Creation - 48

AL Rank - 7

Pitching:

OBP Against - 46

SLG Against - 60

AL Rank - 10

Arizona (Previous season 63-99)

Offense:

OBP - 51

SLG - 44

Run Creation - 45

AL Rank - 11

Pitching:

OBP Against - 51

SLG Against - 63

AL Rank - 7

Las Vegas (Previous season 50-112)

Offense:

OBP - 35

SLG - 42

Run Creation - 36

AL Rank - 16

Pitching:

OBP Against - 28

SLG Against - 50

AL Rank - 16

Season 24 - AL Team Power Index Ratings

This is a new addition I would like to do annually.  I will likely never have as much time as I would like to analyze every team, but I'd like to incorporate a player model that I have been slowly building.  Currently it takes awhile to bring in all of the data I need, but I am trying to make a file where I just need to pull in the Roster and Ratings page from a team's page which I can easily pull into Google Sheets.  There are still some limitations, but it should for the most part give me what I need.

Some comments about my player model:

1. This is still a work-in-progress.  The same team might get a different rating in a future year if I've updated any assumptions.
2. The model will produce numbers based on a neutral park.  Thus, teams in pitchers parks will likely outperform my model's pitching expectations and similarly a team in a hitters park will likely outperform my model's hitting expectations.
3. I don't have fielding done yet, but that's something I would like to include in the future.
4. I haven't yet differentiated starting pitchers from relief pitchers.  Stamina doesn't matter in my model.
5. My model seems to be harder on hitters than pitchers, and it's something I need to investigate more.
6. Please don't ask me for my model parameters.  I may share more info about it later, but not right now :)

One other thing to note.  I am doing this now when it's still Spring Training.  There will likely be players called up on some teams that I cannot anticipate.  That can obviously play a role on how good a team is.  Also, these are not all being done on the same day, so it's possible some moves happen before this gets posted.

For now, I just plan to give a team rating for each team (I may go back and post projected OBP and SLG later).  I hope to add more in future iterations of this.  The team rating is an average of all hitters or pitchers.  I'm not sure this is the best approach, but it's the easiest approach right now.  Without further ado, let's get started!

AL North

Sioux Falls (Previous season 74-88)

Offense:

OBP - 41 (out of 100)

SLG - 35

Run Creation - 39 (based on Runs Creation stat)

AL Rank - 16

Pitching:

OBP Against - 61

SLG Against - 74

AL Rank - 1

New York (Previous season 61-101)

Offense:

OBP - 51

SLG - 49

Run Creation - 47

AL Rank - 10

Pitching:

OBP Against - 43

SLG Against - 58

AL Rank - 14

Minnesota (Previous season 81-81)

Offense:

OBP - 56

SLG - 51

Run Creation - 52

AL Rank - 7

Pitching:

OBP Against - 42

SLG Against - 57

AL Rank - 15

Toronto (Previous season 91-71)

Offense:

OBP - 47

SLG - 42

Run Creation - 45

AL Rank - 12

Pitching:

OBP Against - 46

SLG Against - 63

AL Rank - 9

AL East

Augusta (Previous season 87-75)

Offense:

OBP - 48

SLG - 53

Run Creation - 52

AL Rank - 6

Pitching:

OBP Against - 55

SLG Against - 70

AL Rank - 3

Buffalo (Previous season 60-102)

Offense:

OBP - 48

SLG - 53

Run Creation - 50

AL Rank - 8

Pitching:

OBP Against - 50

SLG Against - 65

AL Rank - 8

Cincinnati (Previous season 93-69)

Offense:

OBP - 52

SLG - 57

Run Creation - 54

AL Rank - 4

Pitching:

OBP Against - 59

SLG Against - 70

AL Rank - 2

Philadelphia (Previous season 100-62)

Offense:

OBP - 52

SLG - 54

Run Creation - 55

AL Rank - 2

Pitching:

OBP Against - 54

SLG Against - 69

AL Rank - 5

AL South

Texas (Previous season 83-79)

Offense:

OBP - 56

SLG - 53

Run Creation - 55

AL Rank - 3

Pitching:

OBP Against - 43

SLG Against - 59

AL Rank - 13

Charleston (Previous season 71-91)

Offense:

OBP - 47

SLG - 41

Run Creation - 41

AL Rank - 15

Pitching:

OBP Against - 41

SLG Against - 61

AL Rank - 12

El Paso (Previous season 99-63)

Offense:

OBP - 48

SLG - 44

Run Creation - 46

AL Rank - 11

Pitching:

OBP Against - 57

SLG Against - 67

AL Rank - 4

Little Rock (Previous season 48-114)

Offense:

OBP - 53

SLG - 48

Run Creation - 49

AL Rank - 9

Pitching:

OBP Against - 45

SLG Against - 62

AL Rank - 10

AL West

Iowa City (Previous season 81-81)

Offense:

OBP - 61

SLG - 53

Run Creation - 56

AL Rank - 1

Pitching:

OBP Against - 46

SLG Against - 59

AL Rank - 11

Cheyenne (Previous season 98-64)

Offense:

OBP - 53

SLG - 42

Run Creation - 45

AL Rank - 13

Pitching:

OBP Against - 54

SLG Against - 68

AL Rank - 6

Colorado Springs (Previous season 89-73)

Offense:

OBP - 44

SLG - 46

Run Creation - 44

AL Rank - 14

Pitching:

OBP Against - 38

SLG Against - 56

AL Rank - 16

Kansas City (Previous season 84-78)

Offense:

OBP - 57

SLG - 50

Run Creation - 53

AL Rank - 5

Pitching:

OBP Against - 52

SLG Against - 66

AL Rank - 7

HOF Candidates for Season 24

In Season 23, KML failed to elect any players to the Hall of Fame, despite some deserving candidates.  A season later, there's some new faces that are going to make the votes even more challenging.  Let's break down some of the top candidates for Season 24.  For this post, I am only going to post on some of the new candidates and refer you back to my blog post from last season for candidates I have previously written about.  There are four new candidates for the HOF this year, three of which worth discussing.

Should Be A Lock

Fergie Speier - KML's all-time home run leader and 5th all time in hits, Fergie Speier is lock of all locks.  The 15th pick of the Season 3 draft, Speier was dominant as soon as he reached the majors in Season 6, winning Rookie of the Year.  He would go on to make the All Star team 8 times, be awarded the Silver Slugger at 1B 11 times and win 3 MVPs.  Speier at one point had a streak of 12 consecutive seasons with at least 40 HRs!  Fergie also had a great eye, finishing his career with the 2nd most walks at 1,311 and has the 3rd best OBP at 0.404.  A dominant hitter for his whole career, Speier should be hearing his name called in Cooperstown this year.

Chi-Chi Margot - One of the best all around 3B to see time in KML, Chi-Chi Margot was a truly exceptional 3B that could do it all.  A 10-time all star, Margot managed to finish his career with 2,778 hits (currently 4th all time) and 578 HRs (currently 5th all time).  He could also steal the occasional base, finishing his career with 229 SBs.  That led to Margo being a 5-time Silver Slugger at 3B.  But Margot was also an excellent defender.  He only won 2 Gold Glove awards at 3B, but he has the most career good plays at 3B with 254 (52 more than #2), was part of the most double plays for a 3B at 511 (209 more than #2), has the most assists at 6,041 (over 2,000 more than #2), and has the most putouts with 2,217 (almost 700 more than #2).  Basically, no player has been as good at 3B for as long as Margot.  All of that plus an MVP award make Chi-Chi a lock for the HOF.

Jose Terrero - see last season's blog post for more on the 3x Cy Young winner.  He surprisingly only got 8 votes last year, and I think he should be in the HOF easily with his 232 wins and 2,854 strikeouts.

Probably Makes It

Aramis Cortazar - see last season's blog post for more on the other 3x Cy Young winner up for the HOF.  Cortazar came close last year with 13 votes.  I think he deserves it, despite the ERA being a little higher.

Could Go Either Way

Nobody new this year in this category.  See last season's blog post for some additional names:

• Joakim Fernandez
• Trey Munro
• Chadd Kendrick
• Charles Payton
• Sean Turner
• Livan Guerrero
• Socrates Russell
• Jimmie Pena

Good Stats But Lacking Accolades

Steve Bailey - One of the great home run hitters in KML history, Steve Bailey was known for his power and durability.  Bailey's daily routine was to get out of bed, mind his spot at 1B and hit some dingers.  He was so good at avoiding injuries that he played in at least 160 games for 10 straight seasons.  He had several great offensive seasons, but only managed on Silver Slugger award and one MVP.  No All Star appearances or any other awards to show for.  Unfortunately for Bailey, his defense likely cost him trips to the All Star Game and there was a lot of competition for Silver Sluggers with other 1B.  Bailey finished with a very impressive 570 HRs, just 8 behind another HOF candidate in Chi-Chi Margot for 5th all time.  He also had nearly 2,300 hits and a lifetime split of 0.277/0.335/0.519.  It's difficult to put Bailey in the HOF right now given the lack of awards, but he may be worth revisiting after some of the current crop makes it in the HOF.

• Peter Donald
• Del Matsumoto

Solid Career, Just Not Quite HOF Worthy

Victor Escalona - Known for his contact and speed, Victor Escalona was excellent at getting on base and getting around the basepaths.  Escalona is a career 0.302 hitter with a career OBP of 0.380.  He finished with 2,307 hits and 420 SBs.  He won 3 Silver Sluggers in CF and another at 2B as well as being a 4-time All Star.  However, he was really overmatched defensively at CF and 2B racking up poor plays every season.  Playing at CF and 2B allowed him to get those Silver Slugger awards, but Escalona doesn't quite have the offensive numbers to justify the HOF.

My votes:

1. Fergie Speier - most prolific HR hitter in KML history

2. Chi-Chi Margot - best KML 3B of all time?

3. Jose Terrero - Elite SP with 3x Cy Young Awards and career 3.17 ERA

4. Aramis Cortazar - More volatile elite SP with 3 x Cy Young Awards and 3.53 ERA

5. Trey Munro - Cy Young winner with 3K strikeouts

Proposed New Penalties for the MWR

For this post, I would like to talk about the existing Minimum Win Requirement (MWR) penalties and what I think would be a better solution going forward.  Note, this post is not intended to call out anyone for the past.  Rather, I just want to explain how things have been done in the past, and how I'd like to do things going forward.

First let's talk about the history - why do we have the MWR?  I've been in KML since its inception, and for the first 15 seasons we didn't have a MWR rule.  We really didn't need it because teams that had bad years generally bounced back within a couple seasons.  Around season 10, there were a few teams that stayed bad for 3+ seasons with win totals under 60 each year.  That led to some animosity with a select group of owners, throwing out the dreaded "T word" (tanking).  Thus, in season 15 we established the current required MWR rules: a ML team must win 180 games over 3 seasons and cannot win fewer than 55 games in consecutive seasons or the owner will not be invited back.

Why hasn't this been enforced?  I took over as commissioner in Season 16 rather abruptly.  The old commissioner, Jperiodj had unfortunately disappeared for over a week when we were trying to fill the world, so I stepped in unexpectedly.  We had already lost some owners, so I didn't want to disrupt things by enforcing the MWR.  This has caused some teams to skirt by without punishment.  However, I think only one team has been truly uncompetitive to the detriment of the league and that owner left on his own accord this season.

I don't see any issues with the current group of owners, but I still think we need to enforce MWR rules so that we keep a competitive balance within the league.  However, I'm not a fan of removing owners, so I would like to revise the punishment for missing the MWR.

My new proposed penalties are as follows:

• Missing the 3-year, 180 win rule will require an owner to not exceed a prospect budget of $15 million for the following season.  This cannot be exceeded even via a transfer of money from one of the other budgets.
• Missing the consecutive seasons of 55 wins will require an owner to not exceed a prospect budget of $8 million for the following season.  This cannot be exceeded even via a transfer of money from one of the other budgets.
• If an owner exceeds their set Prospect budget, they will be warned to transfer money out of their Prospect budget until they reach the required threshold.  If they have already spent more money on prospects than would be allowed, they must release prospects in the amount they exceeded their required budget.  For example, if a team spent $16 million on prospects and had a maximum budget of $15 million, they must release a prospect for which they spent at least $1 million to sign said prospect, or any combination of prospects that would add up to $1 million while also not hurting their minor league squad.  If this is not done then the owner will not be invited back for the following season.

The point of these proposals is so that owners cannot double-dip and acquire talent via draft picks and international free agents.  I know some leagues require teams to either release their 1st round pick or draft a 2-pitch reliever, but that's more convoluted than I want to administer.  I also don't want to punish teams unfairly for one bad season.  Another reason I don't necessarily like removing an owner is that the next owner gets a fresh start at the MWR requirements, so they can continue keep the team bad for an extra season or two and then reap the rewards.

I'm interested to hear thoughts on this, so please leave comments below if you feel strongly one way or another.

Thanks for reading!

Nick

World Series 23 Preview

                       Philadelphia Unionvs     Baltimore Crab Cakes

                           (100-62)                                                                                              (112-50)

It's time for World Series 23, and it’s a battle of the #1 seeds between the American League champion Philadelphia Union and the 3-time defending World Series Champions, the Baltimore Crab Cakes from the National League.  Baltimore will be in search of the franchise's 5th championship which would put them two behind Seattle's leading 7 titles.  For Philadelphia, it's the franchise's 3rd trip to the World Series, and its first appearance since Season 5.  Both teams needed to survive a 5-game series in the LDS with Baltimore overcoming a 2-1 series deficit.  Both teams then stormed out to 3-0 series leads in the LCS.  Baltimore was able to close out Montreal in 5 games, but Philadelphia needed a 6th game to finish off El Paso, costing their pitching staff a little bit of rest.  Will that make a difference in the World Series?  Let's breakdown the matchup.

Philadelphia is led by jp_chips who is in his 8th season at the helm of the Union.  He took over a team that was the laughingstock of the league and has turned them into one of the best teams in the league, having won back-to-back AL East titles with over 100 wins each season.  For Philly, 5 is the magic number as they are 5th in the majors in both runs scored and runs allowed.  They also have an excellent defense behind their pitchers as they rank 1st in fielding percentage, 3rd in + plays and tied for 2nd in fewest - plays.  

Philly has three MVP candidates this season, with LF Beau Guyer the standout of the bunch.  Guyer was both Rookie of the Year and the MVP a season ago, and he's arguably the best hitter in the world.  His numbers were down a little from his tremendous 1.078 OPS season a year ago, but he still put up 37 HRs and drive in 133 runs with a 0.981 OPS and good defense to back it up.  1B Mel Kluber is having a career year with 0.913 OPS and CF Dewey Zornes had an excellent year both at the plate (0.806 OPS, 43 SBs) and in the field (8 + plays and only 3 errors).  The Philly big 3 will likely be at the top of the order and play a key role in getting past the elite Baltimore pitching staff.  An x-factor in this series could be 2B Carl Vining.  The former 2nd overall pick was a late season callup and he has been excellent so far in these playoffs, with a 0.343/0.439/0.713 slash line.

Philadelphia's pitching strength is in their bullpen, with closer Ross Burton (7-2, 37 saves, 1.58 ERA) in the running for both Cy Young and Fireman of the Year awards.  Stefen Parrish had a solid 1.92 ERA in 75 IP.  Jack Lewis pitched the most innings out of the pen with a 3.54 ERA.  The three SPs that have been used most these playoffs - Gil Tomlinson, Glenn Lorraine, and Einar Rivera had regular season ERAs of 3.43, 3.59, and 3.64, respectively.  So they are pretty good, but wouldn't be considered elite.  Every game they can get through 6 innings relatively unscathed, they will have to feel happy about turning it over to their bullpen.  Will their starters be good enough to topple the beast that is Baltimore.

Baltimore is led by aoscott2 who has been in the league since Season 8.  After being #1 in runs scored a year ago, they dropped to a tie for 6th, scoring 122 fewer runs this season.  Their pitching is still as good as ever, ranking #1 in ERA and runs allowed this season.  The also have three MVP candidates in LF Henderson Long (49 HRs, 149 RBIs, 38 SBs), CF Charley Campbell (55 HRs, 121 RBIs, 0.979 OPS) and 1B Marquis Affeldt (31 HRs, 0.906 OPS, 40 SBs).  Nobody else on the team hit more than 18 HRs so these guys bring the power while everyone else does their best to keep the line moving.

Their pitching staff is elite, led by Cy Young candidates Mac Rollins (20-3, 2.04 ERA) and Cozy Kennedy (20-4, 2.69 ERA).  They had 6 different pitchers with sub-3.00 ERAs and a total team ERA of 2.96.  Rubi Callaway was excellent on the backend leading the team with 34 saves.  Baltimore likes to creative with tandem pitching in the playoffs, so it will be interesting to see what they do to stop the powerful Philadelphia offense.

Baltimore is the better all around team, but Philly is young, talented, and eager to make their mark on KML history.  Can the Union topple the Crab Cakes, or will it be a 4th title in a row for Baltimore and aoscott2?  Good luck to both teams in World Series 23!