Wednesday, November 26, 2025

HOF Candidates for Season 25

In Season 24, three KML legends took their places in the Hall of Fame.  A season later, there's some new faces that are going to make the votes even more challenging.  Let's break down some of the top candidates for Season 25.  For this post, I am only going to post on some of the new candidates and refer you back to my blog posts from the last couple of seasons for candidates I have previously written about.


Should Be A Lock

Kirk Michaels - In his first year of eligibility, Kirk Michaels should be a no-brainer Hall of Famer.  His 2,960 hits rank 3rd all time, his 620 HRs rank 4th all time, and his 1,900 RBIs rank 2nd all time.  He was no slouch on the basepaths either as he stole 257 bases in his career.  Michaels is a 7x All Star, 9x Silver Slugger at 2B, a former Rookie of the Year and perhaps most impressively, a 6x MVP.  This is as easy as it gets for a HOF decision.

Jose Terrero - see the Season 23 blog post for more on the 3x Cy Young winner.  His vote count increased from 8 to 13 last season, so he has gotten closer, but hasn't gotten enough support.  This is surprising to me, as I think he should be in the HOF easily with his 232 wins, 2,854 strikeouts and career ERA of 3.17

Should Makes It, In My Opinion

Chadd Kendrick - I have written about Kendrick before, but I am going to go to bat for him here.  I think despite not having as many innings or strikeouts as some other pitchers, he deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.  He was a 10x All Star and a 4x Fireman of the Year winner (not an easy award to win).  He has the lowest ERA in KML history at 2.19, the 4th lowest WHIP at 1.04, and 5th lowest batting average against at 0.205.  I think he has done enough and had enough accolades to deserve to be in the Hall of Fame.


Could Go Either Way

Kirk Mercedes - Not to be confused with the other Kirk M, Mr. Mercedes was a defensive specialist who also had a good bat.  His 109 plus plays in CF are the 5th most all time.  That's a big reason why he was a 5x Gold Glove winner in CF and also why he was a 9x All Star.  At the plate, Mercedes was good at getting on base, finishing his career with a 0.367 OBP (5th highest among the current HOF candidates), and 2,223 hits.  He only has 281 HRs, but he stole 338 bases, something that won't show up in his OPS.  He's in a tough spot, because he was one of the top 2 defensive CF in his prime, but I don't know if he has enough offense to get him in the HOF.

Ezequiel Tatis - A 6x All Star and a Cy Young winner in Season 16, Ezequiel Tatis was a consistently solid pitcher despite playing mostly in hitter friendly Yankee Stadium.  He finished his career with 208 wins, 2,540 strikeouts, and a career ERA of 3.14.  I think the most impressive part of Tatis' career is that he never had a season with an ERA above 4.  His lack of all star appearances probably hurts him a little bit, but Tatis is certainly worthy of consideration for the HOF.

Dave Regan - An excellent pitcher in his prime, Dave Regan was a solid pitcher for the majority of his career.  He was a 2x Cy Young Award winner, an 8x All Star, and even won one Silver Slugger award.  He wasn't known for being a prolific strikeout pitcher, but still managed to punch out 2,000 hitters for his career.  He finished his career with a 3.21 ERA, but won fewer than 200 games in his career (195).  The fact that he made 8 all star teams without winning a lot more games is somewhat impressive.  If he had more wins or strikeouts, he might be a lock, but he's firmly in the could go either way category.

See Season 23 blog post for some additional names:

Good Stats But Lacking Accolades

Cesar Quinones - If not for playing 5 seasons in Seattle, Cesar Quinones might have been a lock to make the HOF.  His career started in Mexico City where he played mostly out of position at SS before he was traded to Seattle.  In his first 8 seasons in the league he only had one silver slugger (SS) and one All Star appearance to his name.  After joining Augusta, he was a 4x All Star and 4x Gold Glove winner at 2B in his 5 seasons there.  His offensive numbers also rebounded from his Seattle days.  Quinones finished his career with a solid 500 HRs, 2,253 hits and career OPS of 0.843.  It's hard to say if he would have been a Hall of Famer if he played his whole career in Augusta, but I'm not sure he has enough right now.

Boone Saunders - Nominated for the HOF for the first time since Season 22, Boone Saunders is another one of these solid closers who had over 500 saves for his career (564, 5th all time).  He was a 4x All Star and finished with a career ERA of 3.17.  He was a solid pitcher but his resume falls short compared to other closers Chadd Kendrick and Del Matsumoto.
Solid Career, Just Not Quite HOF Worthy

Juan Valbuena - A fantastic middle reliever, Juan Valbuena was a guy that teams would call on to get games to their closer in the 9th inning.  He finished with a solid career ERA of 3.09 in just over 2,000 innings pitched and was a 6x All Star.  He just doesn't really have much in longevity stats, finishing with fewer than 1,500 strikeouts and only 114 wins.  If holds were a stat that was tracked, maybe that could have helped his case.  Still a great career, but not enough for the HOF in my opinion.



My votes:
1. Kirk Michaels - 6x MVP and one of the best hitters in league history
2. Jose Terrero - Elite SP with 3x Cy Young Awards and career 3.17 ERA
3. Chadd Kendrick - Currently KML's best ERA (2.19)
4. Trey Munro - Cy Young winner with 3K strikeouts
5. Livan Guerrero - Most saves in KML history (691), 10x All Star and 6x Fireman

Tuesday, November 11, 2025

Season 24 Team Ratings vs Results

I was curious to see how my team power ratings matched up with actual results.  I am comparing runs scored for the offense and runs against for the pitching with my preseason rankings by league.  As a reminder, my predictions were just based on average hitter and average pitcher without factoring in how many plate appearances or innings pitched each player would get.  My model also assumes a neutral ballpark, so naturally teams may differ from expected just based on their ballpark.  Thus, I wouldn't expect things to be perfect, but it's still fun to see how things played out in Season 24.

Let's start with the American League Offense.  My model had the top 5 pegged pretty well with 4 of the top 5 finishing in the top 5.  The exception was Iowa City who finished 6th, who does play in a pitcher's ballpark so that could be the reason.  My model also had the bottom 2 reversed but in the right spot.  It was spots 6-14 that saw a lot of movement with the biggest mover being Augusta who finished 13th compared to a prediction of 6th.  Even though Augusta is a slightly pitcher leaning park, they still performed well below expectations.

Team Prediction Actual Difference
Iowa City16-5
Philadelphia23-1
Texas31+2
Cincinnati42+2
Kansas City550
Augusta613-7
Minnesota78-1
Buffalo812-4
Little Rock94+5
New York1014-4
El Paso117+4
Toronto1211+1
Cheyenne139+4
Colorado Springs1410+4
Charleston1516-1
Sioux Falls1615+1

The Pitching results were a lot more volatile but the better teams were generally better and the worse teams were generally worse.  The one exception was Buffalo who finished worst despite expecting to be middle of the pack.  The worst 3 teams said screw you to the model and finished more in the middle of the pack.


Team Prediction Actual Difference
Sioux Falls17-6
Cincinnati24-2
Augusta31+2
El Paso46-2
Philadelphia53+2
Cheyenne62+4
Kansas City78-1
Buffalo816-8
Toronto95+4
Little Rock1014-4
Iowa City1112-1
Charleston1213-1
Texas1315-2
New York1410+4
Minnesota159+6
Colorado Springs1611+5

Now the National League and starting with the offense.  My model had the top 3 pretty well predicted as they finished as 3 of the top 4 and the bottom 5 pretty well as they finished 5 of the 6th worst teams.  Tacoma was the biggest mover, finishing 10 spots below expectation.  Some of that can be attributed to their ballpark, but they also did seem to finish below expectations.


Team Prediction Actual Difference
Fresno14-3
Austin21+1
Montreal330
New Orleans410-6
Tacoma515-10
Houston660
Salem79-2
London82+6
Baltimore98+1
Jackson107+3
Arizona115+6
Chicago1213-1
Trenton1311+2
Salt Lake City1412+2
New York1514+1
Las Vegas16160

Finally, the NL Pitching.  My model got the #1 team and bottom 3 pegged exactly right.  Chicago and New Orleans were expected to do well and exceed expectations.  Salt Lake City was the biggest mover finishing 8 spots below expected.  Their ballpark is fairly neutral so it was more about some of their players just having a bad season than anything else.


Team Prediction Actual Difference
Baltimore110
Montreal26-4
Chicago32+1
Salt Lake City412-8
New Orleans53+2
Houston611-5
Arizona78-1
Fresno84+4
Austin95+4
Salem109+1
Jackson117+4
London1213-1
Tacoma1310+3
Trenton14140
New York15150
Las Vegas16160

I hope you enjoyed the first iteration of these rankings.  I'm hoping to do a little more this year including maybe incorporating the top players.

Sunday, November 2, 2025

World Series 24 Preview

                        Philadelphia Unionvs     Baltimore Crab Cakes

                           (110-52)                                                                                              (100-62)

Rematch!  For World Series #24, we have the second World Series rematch in KML's history as the Philadelphia Union will be seeking their first title since Season 5 against the Baltimore Crab Cakes, looking for their 5th straight championship and 6th overall.  The last time there was a rematch (the immediate season after), it was a battle between the former Seattle and Houston franchises in seasons 7 and 8.  Houston too the Season 7 World Series in 5 games with Seattle getting revenge in a 4-game sweep.  The biggest difference between last year's 6-game Baltimore series win is that this time Philadelphia has home field advantage.  Can they do what Seattle did and get revenge?  Let's break down the matchup.

Since I wrote extensively on some of the best players from the teams in my blog post for last season's world series, I am going to use my model to talk about some of the key players.  First let's break down the top ten hitters in this series.  This model uses a scale of 20 to 80 where 50 would be considered league average (regardless of position).  Anything above 70 would be considered an offensive superstar and Philadelphia has two of them in their two MVP candidates, Carl Vining and Beau Guyer.  Vining has 7 HRs so far this postseason and seems likely to win rookie of the year.  Guyer struggled in the postseason last year finishing with just a 0.687 OPS, but has been strong in the first two rounds with an OPS of 0.989.  Philadelphia has 7 of the top 10 hitters in this series.  Baltimore's top 2 hitters are their usual MVP suspects in Charley Campbell and Henderson Long.  Campbell transitioned from CF to 1B this year.  His offense was down for his standards, but his defense was still terrific at his new position.  His offense has re-emerged in the playoffs with 4 HRs and a 1.379 OPS in 8 games.  Long similarly has been terrific in the playoffs with an OPS of 1.178.  Philadelphia would seemingly have the advantage at the plate in this series.


Rank Player Team Offensive Rating
1Carl ViningPhiladelphia77.7
2Beau GuyerPhiladelphia76.2
3Charley CampbellBaltimore65.8
4Henderson LongBaltimore65.4
5Dewey ZornesPhiladelphia62.7
6Parker HutchPhiladelphia60.4
7Danry GilPhiladelphia57.7
8D'Angelo BeltranPhiladelphia54.2
9Mel KluberPhiladelphia53.8
10Caleb BarkerBaltimore51.5

Now looking at the top 10 pitchers, Baltimore clearly appears to have the edge with 8 of the top 10.  This isn't surprising considering they had the #1 ERA in baseball again this season.  Cozy Kennedy and Mac Rollins have 6 Cy Youngs combined and are both candidates for the prestigious award again this season.  Rubi Callaway isn't an innings eater, but is elite when he is in the game.  Mac Hines is a rookie, but is already one of the best relievers in the game.  Philadelphia's two pitchers in the top ten of this list are both relievers.  Their starters are serviceable, but will need to be at their best to win the World Series.

Rank Player Team Pitching Rating
1Rubi CallawayBaltimore75.6
2Mac HinesBaltimore72.2
3Mac RollinsBaltimore71.4
4Cozy KennedyBaltimore69.2
5Russ BurtonPhiladelphia68.5
6Yasmani OrdonezBaltimore68.1
7Kole MusialBaltimore67.8
8Raul OrdonezPhiladelphia67.5
9Avisail MercadoBaltimore61.0
10Cory HannityBaltimore60.6

I don't have a defensive model ready yet, but Baltimore had 5 Gold Glove winners to Philadelphia's 0 this season.  This will be a great matchup between offense and pitching/defense.  Good luck to both teams in World Series 24!

HOF Candidates for Season 25

In Season 24, three KML legends took their places in the Hall of Fame.  A season later, there's some new faces that are going to make th...