Philadelphia Union
vs
Baltimore Crab Cakes
(110-52) (100-62)
Rematch! For World Series #24, we have the second World Series rematch in KML's history as the Philadelphia Union will be seeking their first title since Season 5 against the Baltimore Crab Cakes, looking for their 5th straight championship and 6th overall. The last time there was a rematch (the immediate season after), it was a battle between the former Seattle and Houston franchises in seasons 7 and 8. Houston too the Season 7 World Series in 5 games with Seattle getting revenge in a 4-game sweep. The biggest difference between last year's 6-game Baltimore series win is that this time Philadelphia has home field advantage. Can they do what Seattle did and get revenge? Let's break down the matchup.
Since I wrote extensively on some of the best players from the teams in my blog post for last season's world series, I am going to use my model to talk about some of the key players. First let's break down the top ten hitters in this series. This model uses a scale of 20 to 80 where 50 would be considered league average (regardless of position). Anything above 70 would be considered an offensive superstar and Philadelphia has two of them in their two MVP candidates, Carl Vining and Beau Guyer. Vining has 7 HRs so far this postseason and seems likely to win rookie of the year. Guyer struggled in the postseason last year finishing with just a 0.687 OPS, but has been strong in the first two rounds with an OPS of 0.989. Philadelphia has 7 of the top 10 hitters in this series. Baltimore's top 2 hitters are their usual MVP suspects in Charley Campbell and Henderson Long. Campbell transitioned from CF to 1B this year. His offense was down for his standards, but his defense was still terrific at his new position. His offense has re-emerged in the playoffs with 4 HRs and a 1.379 OPS in 8 games. Long similarly has been terrific in the playoffs with an OPS of 1.178. Philadelphia would seemingly have the advantage at the plate in this series.
| Rank | Player | Team | Offensive Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carl Vining | Philadelphia | 77.7 |
| 2 | Beau Guyer | Philadelphia | 76.2 |
| 3 | Charley Campbell | Baltimore | 65.8 |
| 4 | Henderson Long | Baltimore | 65.4 |
| 5 | Dewey Zornes | Philadelphia | 62.7 |
| 6 | Parker Hutch | Philadelphia | 60.4 |
| 7 | Danry Gil | Philadelphia | 57.7 |
| 8 | D'Angelo Beltran | Philadelphia | 54.2 |
| 9 | Mel Kluber | Philadelphia | 53.8 |
| 10 | Caleb Barker | Baltimore | 51.5 |
Now looking at the top 10 pitchers, Baltimore clearly appears to have the edge with 8 of the top 10. This isn't surprising considering they had the #1 ERA in baseball again this season. Cozy Kennedy and Mac Rollins have 6 Cy Youngs combined and are both candidates for the prestigious award again this season. Rubi Callaway isn't an innings eater, but is elite when he is in the game. Mac Hines is a rookie, but is already one of the best relievers in the game. Philadelphia's two pitchers in the top ten of this list are both relievers. Their starters are serviceable, but will need to be at their best to win the World Series.
| Rank | Player | Team | Pitching Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rubi Callaway | Baltimore | 75.6 |
| 2 | Mac Hines | Baltimore | 72.2 |
| 3 | Mac Rollins | Baltimore | 71.4 |
| 4 | Cozy Kennedy | Baltimore | 69.2 |
| 5 | Russ Burton | Philadelphia | 68.5 |
| 6 | Yasmani Ordonez | Baltimore | 68.1 |
| 7 | Kole Musial | Baltimore | 67.8 |
| 8 | Raul Ordonez | Philadelphia | 67.5 |
| 9 | Avisail Mercado | Baltimore | 61.0 |
| 10 | Cory Hannity | Baltimore | 60.6 |
I don't have a defensive model ready yet, but Baltimore had 5 Gold Glove winners to Philadelphia's 0 this season. This will be a great matchup between offense and pitching/defense. Good luck to both teams in World Series 24!
