KML Season 27 World Series Preview
Augusta's Cinderella Run Meets Austin's 100-Win Juggernaut
The stage is set.
After 162 games, three playoff rounds, and a postseason that has eliminated nearly every preseason favorite, the Season 27 Kenesaw Mountain Landis World Series comes down to two very different teams.
The Augusta Admirals are the improbable American League champions, a fifth seed that had to survive the AL Play-In before knocking out the AL's top seed and the other Wild Card team.
The Austin Jiveturkeys are the National League champions, a 100-win powerhouse that has lost just one postseason game.
One team has been riding dominant pitching and an October hot streak.
The other has been steamrolling opponents with a combination of offensive balance and timely hitting.
And while Austin appears to have the edge on paper, Augusta has already demonstrated that counting them out is a dangerous proposition.
Two Very Different Roads to the World Series
Augusta entered the playoffs as the #5 seed after finishing the regular season 89-73.
Austin entered as the #2 seed after winning 100 games.
That alone doesn't tell the story.
Augusta's Road
AL Play-In: Augusta defeated #4 Iowa City, 3-1
ALDS: Augusta defeated #1 Philadelphia, 3-1
ALCS: Augusta defeated #6 El Paso, 4-1
The Admirals eliminated two division champions and the other American League Wild Card team.
And one of those division champions happened to be the defending World Series champion.
Philadelphia had just completed a remarkable 112-50 season, but Augusta dispatched the Union in four games.
Then the Admirals handled El Paso in five.
Augusta enters the World Series with an 10-3 postseason record.
Austin's Road
NLDS: Austin defeated #6 Louisville, 3-1
NLCS: Austin defeated #5 London, 4-0
That's it.
Eight games.
Seven wins.
The Regular Season Says Austin
If we're looking strictly at the regular season, the advantage belongs to Austin.
The Jiveturkeys finished 100-62, compared with Augusta's 89-73.
Austin scored 831 runs compared with Augusta's 702.
Austin hit .273/.345/.417 compared with Augusta's .251/.313/.403.
Austin also won the season series between these teams.
And not just by a little.
Austin swept the three-game series.
Game 1
Austin 6, Augusta 3 — 10 innings
Game 2
Austin 11, Augusta 4
Game 3
Austin 10, Augusta 8 — 21 innings
Austin outscored Augusta 27-15 across the three games.
The final game required 21 innings to settle.
So if you're looking for evidence that Austin should be favored, there is plenty of it.
But October Says Augusta
The postseason tells a different story.
Augusta has allowed just 35 runs in 13 playoff games.
That's a staggering 2.45 ERA.
The Admirals have held opposing hitters to a microscopic .177 batting average, with a 1.00 WHIP.
Austin's postseason pitching has been good, but not dominant by comparison:
3.60 ERA
1.41 WHIP
.249 opponent AVG
Augusta's bats haven't exactly exploded—they're hitting .244 as a team—but they've produced enough power to complement what has become an outstanding postseason pitching staff.
And that may be the single biggest reason this series is difficult to predict.
The Augusta Advantage: Pitching
During the regular season, Augusta posted a 3.34 team ERA, third-best in KML.
That was anchored by an excellent rotation:
- B.J. Valaika: 14-7, 2.46 ERA
- Ted Carew: 10-10, 2.86 ERA
- Ordomar Gutierrez: 13-8, 3.16 ERA
- Geovany Mendoza: 8-6, 3.32 ERA
- Keenyn O'Connor: 13-10, 4.00 ERA
And then October happened.
The staff has been even better.
Unfortunately for Augusta, there is a major problem.
Ordomar Gutierrez Is Out
Gutierrez, Augusta's ace, was injured during the ALCS and will miss the World Series.
That's a devastating blow.
His regular-season numbers were excellent:
13-8, 3.16 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
But his postseason performance was even better.
In four playoff appearances, Gutierrez threw 19⅔ innings and allowed just 12 hits and four earned runs, producing a 1.83 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
Losing him now is enormous.
The Admirals have already climbed this mountain without needing a seventh game in the ALCS, but their margin for error just became considerably smaller.
Austin's Counterpunch: An Offense Built for October
Austin's offense is the more dangerous unit on paper.
The Jiveturkeys hit .273/.345/.417 during the regular season and scored 831 runs.
Their lineup features remarkable depth.
Adeiny Aguilar
.323 / .415 / .513 — .928 OPS
Moises DeRojas
.309 / .392 / .534 — .925 OPS
Arthur Loy
.290 / .383 / .476 — .859 OPS
Onelki Flores
.315 / .390 / .467 — .857 OPS
And the lineup has gotten even better in October.
Aguilar is hitting:
.375/.459/.563 — 1.022 OPS
Mike Sheffield is hitting:
.364/.432/.515 — .948 OPS
Arthur Loy:
.364/.447/.545 — .993 OPS
Douglas Stevenson:
.345/.444/.517 — .962 OPS
And Pedro Flores is hitting .333.
That's a lot of problems for an already-short-handed Augusta pitching staff.
Augusta Has Some October Heroes of Its Own
The Admirals don't have Austin's overall offensive numbers, but several players have stepped up at exactly the right time.
Renato Nieves
Perhaps the most intriguing player in this entire World Series.
Nieves is only 20 years old and was called up at the end of the regular season.
He's responded by becoming one of Augusta's most dangerous postseason hitters.
Through 13 playoff games:
.328 AVG
.344 OBP
.672 SLG
1.017 OPS
5 HR
For a 20-year-old prospect making his first taste of postseason baseball, those numbers are remarkable.
Nieves has gone from prospect to potential World Series X-factor in a matter of weeks.
If Augusta wins this championship, there's a good chance we'll look back at the emergence of Renato Nieves as one of the defining moments of the season.
Aderlin Jackson
Jackson has also provided enormous power.
In only 33 playoff at-bats, he's hitting:
.303/.303/.788
with:
5 HR and 14 RBI
That's an extraordinary amount of production in a small sample.
And five of Augusta's 28 postseason home runs have come from Jackson.
Glendon Banks
Banks has been one of the most ridiculous small-sample performers in the playoffs:
.471 AVG
.471 OBP
1.059 SLG
1.529 OPS
He has three home runs in only 17 at-bats.
Obviously, maintaining that pace is unrealistic.
But Augusta doesn't need him to continue hitting .471.
They just need a few more timely hits.
The Pitching Matchup
This is where the series gets really interesting.
Austin's rotation was good enough to win 100 games, but it wasn't dominant.
The Jiveturkeys finished the regular season with a 3.76 ERA.
Willie Pena was the standout:
17-4, 3.22 ERA
And he has been even better in October.
Through three postseason starts:
21 IP, 4 ER, 1.71 ERA
He's been Austin's best pitcher in the playoffs.
The Jiveturkeys also have a dangerous bullpen, led by Carlos Marrero.
Marrero posted a 2.92 ERA and 1.08 WHIP during the regular season and has been spectacular in October, allowing just one run in 7⅔ innings.
That could become very important in a series where both teams have already shown an ability to win close games.
The X-Factor: Can Augusta Replace Gutierrez?
This may ultimately determine the championship.
Augusta's postseason pitching has been spectacular.
But now the ace is unavailable.
That means more pressure on B.J. Valaika, Ted Carew, Keenyn O'Connor, and Geovany Mendoza.
Valaika has already demonstrated that he's capable of carrying a big postseason load. He's 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA in four playoff starts.
O'Connor has been even better in limited postseason work, posting a 0.77 ERA.
Mendoza has been nearly untouchable:
1.20 ERA
0.60 WHIP
.137 OAV
Those numbers provide Augusta fans with some hope.
The depth is there.
But losing the ace against a lineup this talented is still a major concern.
History Is on the Line
For Augusta, this is a chance to end a very long championship drought.
The Admirals are making their third World Series appearance, but their last trip came all the way back in Season 11.
Sixteen seasons later, they're finally back.
For Austin, this is a much more familiar place.
The Jiveturkeys are making their second World Series appearance in just three seasons, having also reached the championship series in Season 25, falling to Toronto in six games.
And Austin's franchise history extends even further. Before Kenesaw Mountain Landis was created through the merger of two worlds, the Austin franchise won two World Series championships in the predecessor world.
Those championships aren't part of the official KML championship count, but they're very much part of the franchise's history.
A championship here would add another chapter to an organization that has already experienced the ultimate success.
Three Things to Watch
1. Austin's Offense vs. Augusta's Pitching
This is the matchup that could determine everything.
Austin scored 831 runs during the regular season.
Augusta's pitching staff allowed just 598—the third-fewest in KML.
Something has to give.
2. Life Without Gutierrez
Augusta has reached the World Series despite some incredible pitching.
But now they have to do it without their ace.
Can the rest of the rotation compensate?
3. Which Young Star Emerges?
Austin has a lineup filled with established performers.
Augusta has a 20-year-old prospect who has suddenly become one of its most productive postseason hitters.
If Renato Nieves continues his October assault, he could become the face of Augusta's championship run.
The Verdict
On paper, Austin should be favored.
They won 100 games.
They swept Augusta during the regular season.
They have won seven straight playoff games.
Their lineup is deeper.
They have recent World Series experience.
And Augusta just lost its ace.
But if this postseason has taught us anything, it's that Augusta isn't interested in what the paper says.
The Admirals entered October as the fifth seed.
They defeated Iowa City.
Then they knocked out Philadelphia's 112-win juggernaut.
Then they dispatched El Paso.
They have allowed just 35 runs in 13 postseason games.
They've found unexpected offensive heroes.
And now, after 16 years, they're back in the World Series.
Prediction: Austin Jiveturkeys in 6
Austin has too much offensive firepower, and the regular-season sweep is difficult to ignore. The loss of Gutierrez makes the matchup even more challenging for Augusta.
But I don't expect this to be easy.
Austin may have swept the regular-season series, but Augusta is playing a very different brand of baseball now.
The Jiveturkeys are the 100-win favorite.
The Admirals are the Cinderella challenger.
And somewhere between Austin's explosive lineup and Augusta's remarkable pitching, one franchise is about to write itself into KML history.
Let the Fall Classic begin.
