Philadelphia Union
vs
Fresno Fox
(103-59) (96-66)
It's time for World Series #26, with two teams looking for their first titles in over 20 seasons when they were in different cities with different owners. It's a battle between the American League champions in the Philadelphia Union against the National League winners in the Fresno Fox. This is Philadelphia's 3rd trip to the World Series in the last four seasons, having lost twice to Baltimore in 6 games before this. They won't have to face the Crab Cakes this time around because Fresno took care of Baltimore in the NLCS. This is Fresno's first trip to the World Series since Season 5 when they were located in Tacoma. Their opponents were actually Philadelphia when they were located in Kansas City with KC winning that World Series. Before that, these franchises also met in the Season 2 World Series, when it was Kansas City vs Sacramento, so this is actually the 3rd WS matchup between these two teams. Let's break down the matchup.
I am going to continue to use my model to talk about some of the key players. This model uses a scale of 20 to 80 where 50 would be considered league average (regardless of position). A player with a rating of 60 would be considered a "plus" player, and above 70 would be a "superstar".
Offensively, this is a battle between the teams that were #1 in runs scored in their respective leagues (983 runs scored for Philly vs 800 for Fresno). Fresno's success is impressive considering they play in a pitcher friendly ballpark that somewhat limits home runs. Unsurprisingly, both teams had a lot of Silver Sluggers as the Union had 3 and the Fox had 5 (although one was their pitcher Casey La Stella). My model has Philadelphia with the top 5 hitters in this series, but Fresno with the next top 5. Carl Vining (0.954 OPS), Beau Guyer (1.032 OPS), and Jacque Blake (1.069 OPS) are all superstar hitters and are all up for MVP consideration this season. Parker Hutch (0.889 OPS) just won his 3rd Silver Slugger award at 2B and Dewez Zornes is a former Silver Slugger in CF, adding even more firepower to their offense.
Fresno's top rated hitter in my model is George Beirne (0.787 OPS) who is in the final year of his 5-year contract and has been worth every penny. Jose Navarre (0.792 OPS) is solid at getting on base for the top of the order. Vic Aquino (0.796 OPS) has been a Fox for his entire career and would love to cement his legacy with a championship. He is also a finalist for NL MVP. Stone Koplove (0.820 OPS) and Juan Carlos Batista (0.866 OPS) both had solid seasons. Both pitching staffs will have their hands full and it could be a high offensive series with these lineups.
| Rank | Player | Team | Offensive Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carl Vining | Philadelphia | 77.7 |
| 2 | Beau Guyer | Philadelphia | 76.2 |
| 3 | Jacque Blake | Philadelphia | 69.2 |
| 4 | Dewey Zornes | Philadelphia | 62.7 |
| 5 | Parker Hutch | Philadelphia | 60.8 |
| 6 | George Beirne | Fresno | 60.0 |
| 7 | Jose Navarre | Fresno | 59.2 |
| 8 | Vic Aquino | Fresno | 58.8 |
| 9 | Stone Koplove | Fresno | 54.2 |
| 10 | Juan Carlos Bautista | Fresno | 51.9 |
In terms of pitching, Fresno had the world's 3rd best ERA (3.56) while Philadelphia was middle of the pack (4.12 ERA). Of course Philadelphia's ballpark combined with having the DH make things a little bit more challenging than Fresno having the pitcher batting and a pitcher friendly ballpark. In the playoffs, Philly's pitching staff has been lights out at 7-2 with a 3.00 ERA while Fresno has still been pretty good (7-4, 3.73 ERA) but not as good as the regular season.
My model thinks that Fresno has the best pitcher in Kaleb Liefer (13-10, 3.07 ERA) although his teammate Garry Torrealba (12-6, 31 saves, 3.41 ERA) is a finalist for the Cy Young award and Casey La Stella (17-8, 3.03 ERA) has bounced back from a tough injury last season. The 2nd-4th best pitchers hail from Philly although Raul Ordonez (4.22 ERA) and Rich Strickland (4.34 ERA) are coming off down seasons for their standards. Russ Barton (37 saves, 2.88 ERA) has proven to be an excellent closer again this season, finishing as a finalist for Fireman of the Year. Herman Landry (16-4, 3.04 ERA) has had a terrific rookie season and is a finalist for the Rookie of the Year award. Both pitching staffs have quality arms, so it will come down to whoever is hot at the right time.
| Rank | Player | Team | Pitching Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaleb Liefer | Fresno | 68.3 |
| 2 | Raul Ordonez | Philadelphia | 67.8 |
| 3 | Rich Strickland | Philadelphia | 65.0 |
| 4 | Russ Burton | Philadelphia | 64.8 |
| 5 | Garry Torrealba | Fresno | 62.7 |
| 6 | Casey La Stella | Fresno | 62.3 |
| 7 | Herman Landry | Philadelphia | 58.5 |
| 8 | Derrick Hill | Fresno | 58.0 |
| 9 | Jack Lewis | Philadelphia | 57.3 |
| 10 | Bennie Welch | Philadelphia | 57.0 |
I don't have a defensive model ready yet, but each of these teams had one Gold Glove winner this season. This should be a great matchup with both teams having a shot to finally win a World Series. Good luck to both teams in World Series 26!
